2025

Electric Power Supply and Global Warming

2025.  U.S. electric power production highly likely to be limited by water shortages.  “There is a high likelihood that water shortages will limit power plant electricity production in many regions. Future water constraints on electricity production in thermal power plants are projected for Arizona, Utah, Texas, Louisiana, Georgia, Alabama, Florida, California, Oregon, and Washington state by 2025. Additional parts of the United States could face similar constraints as a result of drought, growing populations, and increasing demand for water for various uses, at least seasonally.  

Situations where the development of new power plants is being slowed down or halted due to inadequate cooling water are becoming more frequent throughout the nation."  (Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, (eds.). U.S. Global Change Research Program, Cambridge University Press, 2009, p. 56 citing findings of Bull, S.R., D.E. Bilello, J. Ekmann, M.J. Sale, and D.K. Schmalzer, 2007: Effects of climate change on energy production and distribution in the United States, in Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use in the United States, [Wilbanks, T.J., V. Bhatt, D.E. Bilello, S.R. Bull, J. Ekmann, W.C. Horak, Y.J. Huang, M.D. Levine, M.J. Sale, D.K. Schmalzer, and M.J. Scott (eds.)]. Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.5. U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Washington, DC, pp. 45-80)

2017.  50% chance that Lake Mead reservoir levels will drop too low to allow hydroelectric power generation at Hoover Dam by 2017.  “[In When will Lake Mead go dry?, a Scripps Institution of Oceanography study, research marine physicist Dr. Tim Barnett and climate scientist David Pierce predicted] that there is a 50 percent chance that reservoir levels will drop too low to allow hydroelectric power generation [at Hoover Dam] by 2017.  The researchers add that even if water agencies follow their current drought contingency plans, it might not be enough to counter natural forces, especially if the region enters a period of sustained drought and/or human-induced climate changes occur as currently predicted. . . . ‘When expected changes due to global warming are included as well, currently scheduled depletions are simply not sustainable,’ wrote Barnett and Pierce in the paper.” (“Lake Mead Could Be Dry by 2021,” news release, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, Tuesday, February 12, 2008 reporting findings in Tim P. Barnett and David W. Pierce, "When will Lake Mead go dry?," Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, Journal of Water Resources Research, January 23, 2008)

See energy workforce shortages. 

2025.  Despite energy efficiency trends total energy consumption will rise by about 50% over the period 2005 - 2025.  “The single most important factor affecting the demand for energy will be global economic growth, particularly that of China and India. Despite the trend toward more efficient energy use, total energy consumed probably will rise by about 50 percent in the next two decades [2005 – 2025] compared to a 34 percent expansion from 1980-2000, with an increasing share provided by petroleum.”  (“Growing Demands for Energy,” Mapping the Global Future - Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project - Based on Consultations With Non-Governmental Experts Around the World, NIC 200413, U.S. Government Printing Office, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, December 2004, p. 62) 

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“We were really surprised by these huge straightforward [energy efficiency] opportunities that are not being taken.  In some senses, there is a big market failure.” (3)

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 “I do believe we will be importing oil in 2025.” (4)

David O'Reilly
Retired Chairman and CEO of Chevron

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Cleantech Greentech and Global Warming

2025.  Distributed energy and renewable micro-generation projects implemented by many small economic actors offers the greatest possibility for overcoming the energy infrastructure cost hurdle by 2025.  “Despite what are seen as long odds now, we cannot rule out the possibility of an energy transition by 2025 that would avoid the costs of an energy infrastructure overhaul. The greatest possibility for a relatively quick and inexpensive transition during the period comes from better renewable generation sources (photovoltaic and wind) and improvements in battery technology.

With many of these technologies, the infrastructure cost hurdle for individual projects would be lower, enabling many small economic actors to develop their own energy transformation projects that directly serve their interests—e.g., stationary fuel cells powering homes and offices, recharging plug-in hybrid autos, and selling energy back to the grid. Also, energy conversion schemes—such as plans to generate hydrogen for automotive fuel cells from electricity in the homeowner’s garage — could avoid the need to develop complex hydrogen transportation infrastructure.” (National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, November 2008, p. viii)

Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2025

2025.  Projected starting point when melting permafrost begins a likely irreversible release of 190 gigatons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.  “Thawing permafrost is threatening to overwhelm attempts to keep the planet from getting too hot for human survival.  Without major reductions in the use of fossil fuels, as much as two-thirds of the world's gigantic storehouse of frozen carbon could be released, a new study [Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming] reported. That would push global temperatures several degrees higher, making large parts of the planet uninhabitable.  Once the Arctic gets warm enough, the carbon and methane emissions from thawing permafrost will kick-start a feedback that will amplify the current warming rate, says Kevin Schaefer, a scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado."

"That will likely be irreversible.  And we're less than 20 years [2030] from this tipping point.  Schaefer prefers to use the term ‘starting point’ for when the 13 million square kilometres [11.6 million square miles] of permafrost in Alaska, Canada, Siberia and parts of Europe becomes a major new source of carbon emissions.  ‘Our model projects a starting point 15 to 20 years [2025 to 2030] from now ,’ Schaefer told IPS.  The model used a 'middle of the road' scenario with less fossil fuel use than at present. Even at that rate, it found that between 29 and 60 percent of the world's permafrost will thaw, releasing an extra 190 gigatonnes of carbon by 2200.  The study is the first to quantify when and how much carbon will be released and was published this week [February 15, 2011] in the meteorological journal Tellus.”  (Stephen Leahy, “Permafrost Melt Soon Irreversible Without Major Fossil Fuel Cuts,” IPS, Uxbridge, Canada, February 17, 2011 reporting findings in Kevin Schaefer, Tingjun Zhang, Lori Bruhwiler, Andrew P. Barrett, Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming, Tellus B, 2011; DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0889.2011.00527.x, article first published online on February 15, 2011) 

2025. India’s greenhouse gas emissions could rise 70% by 2025.  “India, though behind its Asian rival [China], could see greenhouse-gas emissions that rise 70% by 2025, according to the World Resources Institute. But the nearly double-digit growth rates that are responsible for those nightmare projections also present an environmental opportunity.  ‘Anything you want to do about clean energy is easier to do from the outset,’ says David Moskowitz, an energy consultant who has advised Chinese officials.  ‘Every time they [China] add a power plant or factory, they can add one cleaner and better than before.’

If China and India can muster the will and resources to leapfrog the West's energy-heavy development path, dangerous climate change might be averted. ‘China and India have to demonstrate to other countries that it is possible to develop in a sustainable way,’ says Yang Fuqiang, vice president of the Energy Foundation in Beijing. ‘We can't fail.’” (Bryan Walsh, “Global Warming: The Impact of Asia's Giants,” Time Magazine, Sunday, March 26, 2006)

2025.  Higher air conditioning usage driven by higher temperatures projected to increase greenhouse gas emissions.  “Global warming may lower energy bills in some places, but the air-conditioning bill in others is going to hurt worse, a study reports.  In particular, the study [Responses of energy use to climate change: A climate modeling study] suggests turning on the air conditioner could make global warming worse because the electricity widely relies on coal power plants, which add warming ‘greenhouse’ gases to the atmosphere.  The study, the first of its kind, looked ahead to changes in energy use and fossil fuel consumption nationwide through 2025.  Led by Stanton Hadley of the Oak Ridge (Tenn.) National Laboratory, the researchers examined whether savings in winter heating bills might outweigh the added costs of summer air conditioning brought about by global warming. . . .

In the study, Hadley and colleagues combined a climate model, data from the National Climatic Data Center, Census projections and the Energy Department's economic model of the U.S. energy system to examine two possible futures.  Global warming increased average global temperatures for 2025 3 degrees in one and 6 degrees in the other.  Overall, the study found carbon dioxide emissions increasing more over time as coal is burned in Southern and Western states to power air conditioners during warmer and warmer summers. Meanwhile, New England states, while saving somewhat on energy bills, didn't have much warmer winters, the climate model shows.” (Dan Vergano, “Air conditioning fuels warming - Power use would eclipse energy savings from climate change,” USA Today, Arlington, Virginia, August 7, 2006, p. 6D citing findings in Stanton W. Hadley, David J. Erickson III, Jose Luis Hernandez, Christine Broniak and T. J. Blasing. “Responses of energy use to climate change: A climate modeling study,” Geophysical Research Letters, 33 17: L17703 September 1, 2006).

China and Climate Change 2025

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“There is no solution to climate change without China.” (5)

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Climate Change Winners

2025.  Russia projected to be a climate change winner.  “Russia has the potential to gain the most from increasingly temperate weather. Russia has vast untapped reserves of natural gas and oil in Siberia and also offshore in the Arctic, and warmer temperatures should make the reserves considerably more accessible. This would be a huge boon to the Russian economy, as presently 80 percent of the country’s exports and 32 percent of government revenues derive from the production of energy and raw materials. In addition, the opening of an Arctic waterway could provide economic and commercial advantages. However, Russia could be hurt by damaged infrastructure as the Arctic tundra melts and will need new technology to develop the region’s fossil energy.” (National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, November 2008, p. 52)

See permafrost forecasts for revised assessments of Russia's status as a climate change winner.

2025.  Canada projected to benefit from climate change.  “Canada will be spared several serious North American climate-related developments— intense hurricanes and withering heat waves—and climate change could open up millions of square miles to development. Access to the resource-rich Hudson Bay would be improved, and being a circumpolar power ringing a major portion of a warming Arctic could be a geopolitical and economic bonus. Additionally, agricultural growing seasons will lengthen, net energy demand for heating/cooling will likely drop, and forests will expand somewhat into the tundra. However, not all soil in Canada can take advantage of the change in growing season, and some forest products are already experiencing damage due to changes in pest infestation enabled by warmer climates.” (National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, November 2008, p. 52)  

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What's surprising, and a bit worrisome, is that the [Greenland ice sheet] is melting so fast that we can actually see the land uplift in response.  Even more surprising, the rise seems to be accelerating, implying that melting is accelerating. (2)

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Greenland Ice Sheet 

2025.  Greenland’s coastal lands projected to rise at a rate of 2 inches per year due to the melting of the Greenland ice sheet.  “Scientists are astounded as rapid ice meltdown in Greenland is causing the land to rise quickly.  Moving glaciers in Greenland form dense icecaps up to 2 km thick that covers most of the island. These icecaps also press down hard on the land beneath, lowering its elevation.  Scientists from the University of Miami have now found that these icecaps are melting, causing some coastal lands to rise by nearly one inch per year.  If this trend continues, that number could accelerate to as much as two inches per year by 2025, explains Tim Dixon, professor of geophysics at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS) and principal investigator of the study.” (No author credited, “Greenland rapidly rising due to ice melting,” The Hindustan Times, London, England, May 19, 2010 citing findings in Yan Jiang, Timothy H. Dixon, Shimon Wdowinski, 'Accelerating uplift in the North Atlantic region as an indicator of ice loss', Nature Geoscience, May 2010; doi: 10.1038/ngeo845) 

Permafrost Melting 2025

2025.  Approximate year when more carbon emissions will begin being outgassed from Arctic permafrost than carbon is taken up by the tundra.  “[S]cientists have documented significant melting of the underground permafrost, from Alaska to eastern Siberia.  The rising temperatures [in the Arctic] have lengthened the growing season of the Arctic summer, which has increased plant growth and the consequent uptake of carbon dioxide. However, by around 2025 this will go into reverse and the thawing permafrost will release more carbon than is being taken up by the tundra growing above it, [Dr. Kevin Schaefer of the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado] said."  (Steve Connor, Science Editor, “Melting of the Arctic 'will accelerate climate change within 20 years', The Independent, Monday, May 30, 2011 reporting findings in Kevin Schaefer, Tingjun Zhang, Lori Bruhwiler, Andrew P. Barrett. Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming, Tellus B, 63: 165–180. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0889.2011.00527.x, Volume 63, Issue 2, pages 165–180, April 2011)

Rising Sea Level Global Warming 2025

2025.  EPA predicts rise in sea levels of 2 feet by 2025.  “The doomsday headlines (Sunbelt Moving North, Warming Spells Disaster) were unduly alarmist, and much of the information was well known to scientists. But last week a media brouhaha was triggered by new studies from the Environmental Protection Agency and the National Academy of Sciences. Both groups agreed on a startling prognosis: the earth is warming up from all the carbon dioxide being spilled into the atmosphere by the burning of fossil fuels, and worse, the first effects of the climatic changes could be felt as early as the 1990s.  The EPA predicted temperature increases of nearly 4° F by the year 2040; a rise in sea levels of  2 feet by 2025 (thereby inundating some low-lying areas in coastal cities such as Charleston, S.C., and Galveston, Texas); and drastically changing rainfall patterns, especially in the breadbasket areas of the Midwest, where reduced precipitation could jeopardize crops. Nothing, not even a sharp cutback in the use of fossil fuels, the EPA added, could alter this climatic course.” Emphasis added. Global warming 2025.  (Frederic Golden and Jay Branegan, “Environment: Hot Times for the Old Orb,” Time Magazine, Monday, Oct. 31, 1983)

2025.  Sea levels forecast to rise up to 10 inches by 2025 based on a 3 degree Fahrenheit rise in ocean temperatures.  “As global temperatures rise because of the greenhouse effect, oceans levels expand by the warmer water temperatures and because of the glacial melting, according to John S. Hoffman, director of EPA's Strategic Studies staff, which conducted [the Sea Level Rise Project].  The study provided two scenarios on the possible effects over the next 40 to 100 years.  The low scenario, based on on the calculated three-degree rise in ocean temperatures, will make the seas rise . . . up to 10 inches by 2025.  Such an increase by 2025 would be enough to 'significantly increase (storm and erosion) hazards at places like Ocean City [Maryland].' Hoffman said. . .

For barrier islands like Ocean City, according to Stephen P. Leatherman, a University of Maryland coastal geographer who participated in the research, the results would differ, depending on the scenario.  'Even the rate of sea level rise in the low scenario would mean erosion problems two or three times worse than what they (Ocean City) are seeing now, and the high scenario would be almost catastrophic — at least a major, major increase in storm hazards, there,' he said.  One big problem cited by Hoffman is that around the United States there are already 1,137 active hazardous-waste disposal sites located in 100-year floodplains, areas where major innundations should occur at least once a century.” Climate change 2025.  (Associated Press, "Greenhouse effect' may harm bay water," Frederick News-Post, Frederick, Maryland, May 2, 1983, p. 13)

2025.  Maryland shoreline in Somerset County projected to be eroded back 17 feet with a 2 inch sea level rise by 2025.  “In August [2008], consultants with URS Inc. presented a draft report [Somerset County, Maryland : Rising sea level guidance] on sea level rise to the Somerset County Planning and Zoning Commission. They predicted that by 2025 the shoreline will be eroded back some 17 feet across the board [with a sea level rise of 2 inches or 53 mm], increasing to 42 feet by 2050 and 92 feet by 2100. The greatest impact will be in the Deal Island and Chance communities, while Smith Island for the most part will be underwater just 90 years [2098 or ca. 2100] from now. . . .

The URS consultants are basing their report on historical data by predicting a 2 inch increase in average sea level by 2025, 5 inches by 2050 and one foot by 2100. [Somerset County Technical and Community Services Director Jack Willing Jr. ] said the state [of Maryland] is forecasting a two to three foot rise with four feet ‘the worst case scenario.’ He asked the consultants to modify their report accordingly.  Kyle Gulbronson, the senior planner and project manager with URS, said four feet ‘is a doomsday scenario’ for much of the county. The effects "will be dramatic," he said.” (Richard Crumbacker, Crisfield Times, “Storm gives look into the future - Consultants predicted vulnerable areas, and high tide showed it,” Crisfield Times, Crisfield, Maryland, September 10, 2008, pp. 1, 3 reporting findings in URS & RCQuinn Consulting, Inc., "Somerset County, Maryland : Rising sea level guidance," a report to the Maryland Coastal Zone Management Program, Department of Natural Resources pursuant to NOAA Award No. NA05NOS4191142, September 24, 2008, p. 14) 

2025.  Sea levels projected to rise 1.5 inches to 3.1 inches by the year 2025.  “Sea levels may rise by 1.5 inches to 3.1 inches by the year 2025 from expansion of ocean water in a warming climate, a prediction says.  But forecasting the total sea level rise will require estimating the contribution of runoff from melting glaciers, ‘a daunting task,’ researchers said.  The projected increase from thermal expansion, calculated for 1985 to 2025, compares to previous published estimates of 2.3 inches to 4.3 inches, they said.  The study [Thermal Expansion of Sea Water Associated with Global Warming] in the British journal Nature, was prepared by Tom Wigley and S.C.B. Raper of the University of East Anglia in Norwich, England. Mr. Wigley now is working at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.  Changes in sea level are being studied as one consequence of the ‘greenhouse effect,’ a warming of the global climate due to a buildup of certain gases in the atmosphere. 

Over the last century, global average temperature has increased by about nine-tenths of a degree Fahrenheit and sea level has risen by about 4 to 6 inches, the researchers wrote. But the relative contributions of ocean water expansion and glacial melting are unknown and estimates vary widely, they said.” (“Rise Forecast In Sea Levels By Year 2025,” The Journal of Commerce, New York, New York, November 19, 1987, p. 10B citing findings in Wigley, T.M.L. and Raper, S.C.B., 1987, “Thermal Expansion of Sea Water Associated with Global Warming,” Nature, 330, 127-131, 18 November 1987)

Agriculture, Food Supplies, Food Security

2025.  Decreased agricultural output caused by global warming projected to have devastating impact on developing countries especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. “Climate change is expected to exacerbate resource scarcities. Although the impact of climate change will vary by region, a number of regions will begin to suffer harmful effects, particularly water scarcity and loss of agricultural production. Regional differences in agricultural production are likely to become more pronounced over time with declines disproportionately concentrated in developing countries, particularly those in Sub-Saharan Africa. Agricultural losses are expected to mount with substantial impacts forecast by most economists by late this century. For many developing countries, decreased agricultural output will be devastating because agriculture accounts for a large share of their economies and many of their citizens live close to subsistence levels.” (National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, November 2008, p. viii)

2025. Population growth projected to cause 36 countries to be either cropland or freshwater scarce by 2025.  “Lack of access to stable supplies of water is reaching critical proportions, particularly for agricultural purposes, and the problem will worsen because of rapid urbanization worldwide and the roughly 1.2 billion persons to be added over the next 20 years. Today [2008], experts consider 21 countries, with a combined population of about 600 million, to be either cropland or freshwater scarce. Owing to continuing population growth, 36 countries, with about 1.4 billion people, are projected to fall into this category by 2025.” (National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, November 2008, p. viii)

Fisheries and Food 2025

2022.  Projection that there will be no cod left by 2022 if cod fisheries continue to be fished at current rates.  “Cod and other commercial ground fish are caught in a net in the Gulf of Maine.  Our appetite for fish is wreaking havoc on aquatic populations worldwide. The conservation group World Wildlife Fund predicts that if cod fisheries continue to be fished at current rates, there will be no cod left by 2022.”  (National Geographic editors, “Cod Caught in a Net, Gulf of Maine,” National Geographic, undated, retrieved Saturday, June 12, 2010)

2025.  Dartmouth study projects that over 1 trillion bits of plastic will be released into the ocean from 2014-2024 due to the melting of Arctic ice.  “In a study published in the open-access journal Earth’s Future, [Dr. Rachel Obbard, a Dartmouth University professor] and her colleagues write that more than a trillion bits of plastic may be released into the ocean over the next 10 years [2014-2014] as global warming speeds the melting of Arctic ice. . . . Obbard and her colleagues believe that micro-plastics typically land in the ocean in one of three ways: ‘One way is through laundry,’ she says: ‘The lint particles that come off in your washing machine and then get washed out with the water.’ A second type of particles results from fragmentation in the ocean of larger plastic waste such as water bottles and fishing nets. The last major source is probably waste from companies that use small plastic particles to manufacture larger items.  According to the report ‘microplastic fragments . . . are clearly ingested by a wide range of marine organisms including commercially important species,’”  (Business Week 2014, Caroline Winter, “How So Much Plastic Got Into the Frozen Arctic Sea,” Business Week, May 30, 2014 reporting findings in Earth’s Future 2014, Rachel W. Obbard et al, “Global warming releases microplastic legacy frozen in Arctic Sea ice,” Earth’s Future, DOI: 10.1002/2014EF000240, May 20, 2014)

China 

2025.  Year China could overtake the U.S. as the world’s biggest economic power.  “China’s rocketing economy could overtake the US within 25 years, according to the author of a new book on the country. Oded Shenkar said China's mix of cheap but skilled workers, imported new technology and economies of scale made it very competitive and on course to be the biggest economic power about 20 years earlier than other analysts believed. He said: ‘The rise of China is a watershed. I compare it to the rise of the United States in the late 19th century.’” (“China 'biggest economy by 2025’,” The Evening Standard, London, England, February 9, 2005)  Peruse books by Oded Shenkar.   

Aging Population 

2025.  U.S. cities may not be able to support aging citizens if current trends continue.  “Should these trends continue, America in 2025 may have cities that can't support their aging citizens; transportation infrastructure ill-equipped to meet the needs of young or old, and a gap between rich and poor that could grow with our population.”  (Bruce Katz and Judith Rodin, “An impending national transformation,” Politico, Capitol News Company LLC, Arlington, Virginia, May 9, 2010) 

 Weather Forecasting

2025.  Weather forecasts in the zero to 2-day time frame predicted to be essentially perfect.  “And what's the forecast for forecasting ordinary weather—the cold fronts, drizzle, and sunshine that are the backdrop to most people's lives? Steady improvement, says Richard Anthes, president of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research in Boulder.  By 2025, he says, ‘numerical predictions in the zero to two-day time frame will be essentially perfect. If the forecast says 12 inches [30 centimeters] of snow, the actual amount will be in the 10- to 14-inch [25- to 35-centimeter] range.’ Forecasts of temperatures and storms a week out will be as reliable as two- to three-day forecasts are today — which is to say, right most of the time.” (Tim Brookes, “How's the Weather Out There?  Forecasting the Chaos of Weather,” republished from the pages of National Geographic magazine, undated, retrieved Thursday, May 20, 2010)

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