2030

Climate Change Tipping Points 2030

Methane Outgassing From Permafrost

Climate Change, Food Security and Food Supply 2030

2030.  Phosphate supplies expected to peak around 2030.  “A leading soil scientist believes that more than 50% of the UK's total phosphate requirement could come from organic sources - saving the agricultural industry £20-30m a year. . . Prof [Brian] Chambers, of ADAS [an environmental consulting firm], has warned of devastating consequences to the world's food supply if supplies of the fertiliser, which is crucial to agriculture, start to dwindle. . . . Western Europe imports all of its phosphate for agricultural use. But Prof Chambers believes the government could respond to the threat by recovering phosphate from organic waste [e.g., food waste] that often ends up being sent to landfill - and processing it through [anaerobic digestion or AD] plants instead.  ‘Our primary source of phosphate, rock phosphate, is imported into the UK for agricultural use and it is becoming increasingly expensive," said Prof Chambers, head of ADAS's soils and nutrients team.  Supplies are expected to peak around 2030 and, unlike oil, there is no substitute for phosphorus. A shortage of phosphorus at the time when we need to be doubling our food supply could be disastrous.’” (Philip Case, “ADAS scientist warns of looming phosphate shortage,” Farmers Weekly Interactive, Friday July 23, 2010)

2030.  Food prices projected to double by 2030 due to worsening climate change and resource scarcity.  “New research commissioned [by Oxfam International] paints a grim picture of what a future of worsening climate change and increasing resource scarcity holds for hunger. It predicts international price rises of key staples in the region of 120 to 180 per cent by 2030. This will prove disastrous for food importing poor countries, and raises the prospect of a wholesale reversal in human development. . . . The warning signs are clear. Surging and unstable international food prices, growing conflicts over water, the increased exposure of vulnerable populations to drought and floods are all symptoms of a crisis that may soon become permanent: food prices are forecast to increase by something in the range of 70 to 90 per cent by 2030 before the effects of climate change, which will roughly the double price rises again”  (Robert Bailey, Growing a Better Future, Oxfam International, Oxford, United Kingdom, June 2011, pp. 7, 12)

Food Prices Projected for 2030

2030.  Crop yields for rice, wheat and corn projected to start declining significantly as result of climate change.  “Results from a new study [A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation," published March 16 by the journal Nature Climate Change], show global warming of only 2 degrees Celsius will be detrimental to three essential food crops [rice, maize/corn and wheat] in temperate and tropical regions. And beginning in the 2030s, yields from those crops will start to decline significantly.  …[T]he study was able to create the largest dataset to date on crop responses, with more than double the number of studies that were available for researchers to analyze for the previous IPCC Assessment Report in 2007 [IPCC 4th Assessment Report].  

…'Our research shows that crop yields will be negatively affected by climate change much earlier than expected,' said Andy Challinor, University of Leeds professor and lead author of the study. ‘Furthermore, the impact of climate change on crops will vary both from year to year and from place to place – with the variability becoming greater as the weather becomes increasingly erratic.’  The researchers conclude that, on aggregate, we will see an increasingly negative impact of climate change on crop yields from the 2030s onward. The impact will be greatest in the second half of the century, when decreases of more than 25 percent will become increasingly common.” (ASU News 2014, “New research shows climate change will reduce crop yields sooner than expected,” ASU News, March 25, 2014 announcing findings in Nature Climate Change 2014, Andy Challinor, Netra Chhetri et al, “A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation,” Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2153, March 16, 2014)

2030. Global food demand projected to increase by 50 percent by 2030.  “The World Bank estimates that demand for food will rise by 50 percent by 2030, as a result of growing world population, rising affluence, and the shift to Western dietary preferences by a larger middle class. Lack of access to stable supplies of water is reaching critical proportions, particularly for agricultural purposes, and the problem will worsen because of rapid urbanization worldwide and the roughly 1.2 billion persons to be added over the next 20 years. Today [2008], experts consider 21 countries, with a combined population of about 600 million, to be either cropland or freshwater scarce. Owing to continuing population growth, 36 countries, with about 1.4 billion people, are projected to fall into this category by 2025.” (National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, November 2008, p. viii)

2030. South Asia and southern Africa could face growing food shortages due to climate change by 2030.  “Impoverished farmers in South Asia and southern Africa could face growing food shortages due to climate change within just 20 years, a new study [Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030] says. . . . The researchers used computer models to predict changes in temperature and rainfall as the planet warms.  Most of the 12 regions were predicted to warm up about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) by 2030—about the same amount of warming that Earth as a whole experienced over the 20th century.  [The overall analysis [suggested] that southern Africa and South Asia were two spots where hotter temperatures and lack of water are most likely to stress crops. . . . In southern Africa, corn (also known as maize) is a major crop, but it will suffer especially, the study suggests.

[David Lobell, Stanford University lead author of the study]. and colleagues predict about a 30 percent drop in corn yields there, along with a 15 percent drop in wheat yields, and smaller drops for soybeans and sugarcane.  They predict a small increase in rice yields for the southern Africa, and little change for sorghum or cassava.  In South Asia, on the other hand, almost every major crop would suffer a decline of about 5 to 10 percent, with only soybeans experiencing a slight gain in yields, the study predicts.  Changing which crops are cultivated in these areas could help populations cope with climate change, the authors argue.”  (David Lobell, Fellow at Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University quoted in Mason Inman, “Warming May Cause Crop Failures, Food Shortages by 2030,” National Geographic News – National Geographic Magazine, January 31, 2008 reporting findings from David B. Lobell, Marshall B. Burke, Claudia Tebaldi, Michael D. Mastrandrea, Walter P. Falcon, Rosamond L. Naylor, "Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030," DOI: 10.1126/science.1152339, Science, Vol. 319. no. 5863, February 1, 2008, pp. 607 – 610)

Climate Change Costs | Cost of Global Warming 2030

2030.  Climate change could cost up to 5% of global GDP by 2030 if effective steps are not taken.  “World renowned Indian environmentalist R K Pachauri has warned the international business and political leaders that climate change could cost up to 5 per cent of global GDP by 2030 if effective steps were not taken in time.  ‘The business and political leaders should realise that measures to bring down emission levels would not cost more than 0.2 per cent of the global GDP, but it could cost up to 3 per cent of world GDP by 2020, and 5 per cent by 2030, if the temperature goes by 2-4 degree Celsius,’ the head of the UN's Nobel Prize-winning scientific panel on climate change said.”  (R K Pachauri, addressing the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland quoted in Manoj Kumar, “Climate change may cost 5 pc global GDP by 2030: Pachauri,” PTI - The Press Trust of India Ltd., January 24, 2008)

2030.  Estimated additional global investment of up to $210 billion required in 2030 to reduce GHG emissions.  “It is estimated that global additional investment and financial flows of USD 200–210 billion will be necessary in 2030 to return global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to current levels.”  (Report on the analysis of existing and potential investment and financial flows relevant to the development of an effective and appropriate international response to climate change, United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change, Dialogue on long-term cooperative action to address climate change by enhancing implementation of the Convention, Fourth workshop, Vienna, Austria, Dialogue working paper 8, August 8, 2007)

2030.  Annual costs of $67 billion projected for 2030 to cover the food supply, intrastructure and health care relief costs caused by rising sea levels.  “Rising sea levels are likely to prompt mass migrations, armed conflicts and sanitary crises, requiring urgent planning to guarantee food and other essentials and at least $67 billion annually in 2030 to help people in developing countries adapt to climate change, the United Nations said in a report to a conference on climate change in Vienna.  The money is needed to ensure access to food supplies, health care and infrastructure.”  (Bloomberg News “Conflicts, crises foreseen - UN says rising sea levels from global warming will stir mass migrations, tensions; urges urgent planning,” Newsday, Long Island, New York, August 31, 2007, p. A40)

2030.  Global warming projected to add as much $6.1 billion in repair and replacement costs to Alaska’s infrastructure by 2030.  “Many of Alaska's roads, runways, railroads and water and sewer systems will wear out more quickly and cost more to repair or replace because of climate change, according to a study released yesterday.  Higher temperatures, melting permafrost, a reduction in polar ice and increased flooding are expected to raise the repair and replacement cost of thousands of infrastructure projects as much as $6.1 billion for a total of nearly $40 billion - about a 20 percent increase - from now to 2030, according to the study, by the Institute for Social and Economic Research at the University of Alaska Anchorage.

. . . The study is the first of its kind in Alaska, and its authors emphasize that it does not project costs for things like moving villages, protecting the Trans-Alaska Pipeline, fighting wildfires or protecting private property that may be affected.  ‘There are a million other issues related to climate change,’ said Peter Larsen, a natural resource economist at the Institute for Social and Economic Research and the lead researcher for the report.” (“Study Sees Climate Change Impact on Alaska,” The New York Times, June 28, 2007 citing findings in Peter Larsen, Principal Investigator, O. Scott Goldsmith, ISER-UAA, Orson Smith, UAA-Engineering, Meghan Wilson, ISER-UAA, Ken Strzepek, U. of Colorado-Engineering, Paul Chinowsky, U. of Colorado-Engineering, and Ben Saylor, ISER-UAA, Estimating Future Costs for Alaska Public Infrastructure At Risk from Climate Change, Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, June 2007, pp. 1, 7, 69, 74, 81)

2030.  Permafrost melting by 2030 could cause severe damage to Russian defense infrastructure, assets and resources.  “Defense infrastructure, including key airfields, oil storage facilities and strategic oil reservoirs, could all be destroyed if the hard permafrost covering the ground year-round across Russia's far north melts by 2030, Russia's First Deputy Emergencies Minister Ruslan Tsalikov told the Federation Council, the upper chamber of the Russian parliament, Thursday.  Tsalikov described as a catastrophe the damage that would result from widespread permafrost melting, the RIA Novosti news agency reported.  Russia's widespread coniferous forests also could be inundated by flooding and unprecedented warmer weather triggered by climate change, Tsalikov said.  If the annual temperature rises by one or two degrees ... the permafrost could decrease 50 percent, Tsalikov said."

"The risk of flooding would also double, he said, according to the RIA Novosti report.  Global warming could also cost Russia its huge supplies of methane gas trapped beneath the permafrost, believed to be almost one third of the entire world's reserves, RIA Novosti said.  The news agency said West Siberia's permafrost was currently disappearing at the rate of 4 centimeters per year. That would cause the permafrost's southern boundaries to retreat by an average of nearly 50 miles across northern Russia over the next 20 years [2010-2030], the report said.” (Martin Sieff, UPI News Service, “Russia Defense Watch: Melting ice menace,” UPI International Intelligence, June 23, 2008)

Climate Change Floods | Global Warming Flooding - 2030

2030.  Flooding may increase 50 percent in West Africa and quadruple in Central and South America by 2030.  “Climate change is expected to increase the severity of storms, especially ones associated with cyclical events such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation.  Flooding is the most common weather disaster, responsible for the deaths of about 100,000 people and the displacement of 1.2 billion from 1992 to 2001. The worsening of this hazard will vary by region. It is expected to change little in Southeast Asia by 2030, but it may increase 50 percent in West Africa and quadruple in Central and South America.  In addition to storms, rising oceans threaten coastal populations.  Of the world's 20 megacities, 13 are at sea level.  Storm surges, while short-lived, can cause permanent damage, eroding land and damaging water supplies and cropland with saltwater.”  (David Brown, Washington Post Staff Writer, “As temperatures rise, health could decline as scientists confront climate change, disease issues studied,” The Washington Post, Washington, DC, Monday, December 17, 2007, p. A07)

Medical Care Workforce

2030.  Shortage of geriatric psychiatrists projected for 2030.  “This demographic transition [from the elderly making up only 12.4% of the U.S. population in 2000 to 20% by 2030] will increase the current shortfall of health care providers with geriatric expertise – and specifically health care providers with geriatric mental health expertise. Since 1990, approximately 2,500 psychiatrists have received subspecialty certification in geriatric psychiatry. This supply of physicians is woefully inadequate to meet the future needs of the nation. According to estimates in the President’s Commission on Mental Health Subcommittee on Older Adults (2003), 'at the current rate of graduating approximately 80 new geriatric psychiatrists each year and an estimated 3% attrition, there will be approximately 2,640 geriatric psychiatrists by the year 2030 or one per 5,682 older adults with a psychiatric disorder.' It has been estimated that 4,000 – 5,000 geriatric psychiatrists who provide patient care are needed (National Institute on Aging, 1997) and an additional 1,220 physician faculty members and 919 non-physician faculty members who provide training in geriatric psychiatry to meet the future demand."  (“Shortage of Geriatric Psychiatrists,” American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry, Bethesda, Maryland, 2004, retrieved Saturday, dated 2004, retrieved August 14, 2010)

2030.  By 2030 more than 36,000 geriatricians will be needed to provide care for nearly 70 million Americans older than age 65.  “[E]ven as the nation is bracing for the number of elderly to soar, there's a critical shortage of geriatricians [doctors trained to care for the elderly].  With the shortage unlikely to ease soon, the American Geriatrics Society is launching new programs to train surgeons and general practitioners to improve their care of older patients. Treating the elderly, especially the very old, can be remarkably different than treating younger patients. In fact, seniors often don't have the usual symptoms a younger person would show for the same disease. . . . Geriatricians are specially trained to deal with those unique senior problems, and coordinate proper care among competing specialists. As for other doctors, a survey found one-third of recent medical school graduates believed their elder care instruction was inadequate.  By 2030, the American Geriatrics Society estimates more than 36,000 geriatricians will be needed as the older-than-65 population approaches 70 million. The older-than-85 population will more than quadruple to 18 million by 2050.” (Associated Press, “Focusing on Senior Health Needs - Geriatrics: There's a move to train more doctors to treat medical problems of a growing elderly population,” Los Angeles Times, August 7, 2000)

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