2100

Cost of Climate Change by 2100

2100.  Protecting developed areas of U.S. coastlines from a 1-meter sea level rise projected to cost $73 billion to 111 billion through 2100.  “Published estimates of sea level rise due to global warming generally range from 0.5 to 2.0 meters (1.5 to 7 feet) by 2100.  Sea level rise could be greater than or less than this range because uncertainties exist regarding the rate of atmospheric warming, glacial processes, oceanic uptake of heat, precipitation in polar areas, and other variables. . . . Given the high property values of developed coastlines in the United States, it is likely that measures would be taken to hold back the sea along most developed shores. 

Preliminary estimates suggest that the cumulative capital cost (including response to current sea level rise) of protecting currently developed areas would be $73 to $111 billion (in 1988 dollars) through 2100 for a 1-meter global rise (compared with $4 to $6 billion to protect developed areas from current trends in sea level rise). A 1-meter sea level rise would lead to a cumulative inundation of 7,000 square miles of dryland -- an area the size of Massachusetts (see Table 1, p. xxxvii of report). If the oceans continue to rise at current rates, approximately 3,000 square miles of dryland would be lost.” (U.S. EPA, The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States,  EPA-230-05-89-050, Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, December 1989, p. xxxvi)

Oceans

Agriculture, Vitaculture and Global Warming

2100.  California’s agriculture could vanish by 2100.  “We're looking at a scenario where there's no more agriculture in California. California's farms and vineyards could vanish by the end of the century [2100], and its major cities could be in jeopardy, if Americans do not act to slow the advance of global warming.”  (U.S. Secretary of Energy and Nobel-prize-winning physicist, Steven Chu quoted in Jim Tankersley, “California farms, vineyards in peril from warming, U.S. energy secretary warns,” Los Angeles Times, February 4, 2009) 

2100.  U.S. projected to lose up to 81% of its premium wine grape growing acreage by 2100 due to climate change.  According to a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, severe heat extremes coinciding with a steep increase in the frequency of extremely hot days are projected to wipe out 81% of U.S. premium wine grape growing acreage by the year 2100.  The study's computerized climate projections show the greatest losses occurring in the West Coast and the Southwest.  Wine grape production in the Napa and Sonoma valleys and Santa Barbara County of California would essentially be eliminated by the late 21st century, according to computer model scenarios.  Only areas in New England, the Pacific Northwest, the Pacific coast of California and some highly elevated regions in the West would have the right climate for growing premium wine grapes.   By the year 2100 the only areas in California that will remain suitable for vineyards will be the Sierra Nevada and the narrow grape growing areas along the California coast, according to the study.  (PNAS 2006, M. A. White, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, G. V. Jones, J. S. Pal, and F. Giorgi, “Extreme heat reduces and shifts United States premium wine production in the 21st century,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 25, 2006)

 ___________________________________________________ 

We have already reached a tipping point where we will soon see an ice-free Arctic Ocean in the summer. 

There's nothing we can do about that. It could be in 2015.  It could be in 2025.  It almost doesn't matter.  It'll happen in this generation. 

As a result, the whole weather system could change. (1)

 ___________________________________________________ 

Temperatures in 2100

 2100.  Earth’s temperatures projected to rise by 6.3 degrees F by 2100.  “Climate researchers now predict the planet will warm by 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century even if the world's leaders fulfill their most ambitious climate pledges, a much faster and broader scale of change than forecast just two years ago, according to a report released Thursday [September 24, 2009] by the United Nations Environment Program. The new overview of global warming research . . . highlights the extent to which recent scientific assessments have outstripped the predictions issued by the Nobel Prize-winning U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007. Robert Corell, who chairs the Climate Action Initiative and reviewed the UNEP report's scientific findings, said the significant global temperature rise is likely to occur even if industrialized and developed countries enact every climate policy they have proposed at this point. The increase is nearly double what scientists and world policymakers have identified as the upper limit of warming the world can afford in order to avert catastrophic climate change.” (Juliet Eilperin,  Washington Post Staff Writer, “New Analysis Brings Dire Global Warming Prediction,” Washington Post, Friday, September 25, 2009 reporting findings in UNEP 2009, Catherine P. McMullen and Jason Jabbour, editors, Climate Change Science Compendium 2009, United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, Kenya, September 2009, updated October 2009)

Don't forget to bookmark this page
Climate Change 2100 – Global Warming 2100