Heat Waves and Global Warming

Heat Waves • Global Warming Forecasts

Heat Waves, Global Warming

2010 – 2019.  Stanford computer models project a dramatic spike in extreme seasonal temperatures during the period 2010 - 2019.  “The Stanford team also forecast a dramatic spike in extreme seasonal temperatures during the current decade [2010 – 2019]. Temperatures equaling the hottest season on record from 1951 to 1999 could occur four times between now [2010] and 2019 over much of the U.S., according to the researchers.  The 2020s and 2030s could be even hotter, particularly in the American West.” (Mark Shwartz, communications manager, Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford University, “Heat waves and extremely high temperatures could be commonplace in the U.S. by 2039, Stanford study finds,” Stanford Report, July 8, 2010 citing findings in Diffenbaugh, Noah, and Moetasim Ashfaq. Intensification of hot extremes in the United States. Geophysical. Research Letters, (in press) DOI: 10.1029/2010GL043888, August 6, 2010) 

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Between 2010 and 2019 [9 years], temperatures equaling the hottest season on record from 1951 to 1999 [a 48 year period] could occur four times over much of the U.S. (1) 

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 Are scientists and policy-makers underestimating the potential severity of climate change impacts? 

How have climate change forecasts compared
to real world observations of the forecast periods?

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• How will the existing stock of air conditioners perform under a dramatic spike in temperatures and long, intense heat wave conditions forecast for the 2010 - 2019 decade?
• How will long, intense heat waves affect the product life, performance and failure rates of the existing stock of air conditioners?
• Are new air conditioners being designed to operate effectively under the forecasted high intensity heat wave operating conditions?
• If air conditioners fail or outages occur due to heavy air conditioning loads, will communities have plans in place to protect at-risk populations? Elderly aging populations, children in schools, hospitals, etc.?
  

2020.  By 2020 excess U.S. annual summer deaths due to extreme heat events projected to reach 1,981 to 4,100.  “In a study on the impact of future climate scenarios on mortality in 44 cities [SMSAs], Kalkstein and Greene estimate that by 2020, under a business-as-usual emissions scenario, excess annual summer deaths will increase from 1840 to 1981 – 4100 (depending on the GCM used)....” (George Luber, MA, PhD, Michael McGeehin, PhD, MSPH, “Climate Change and Extreme Heat Events,” American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2008;35(5):429–435, November 2008, p. 431 citing findings in Laurence S. Kalkstein and J. Scott Greene, “An evaluation of climate/mortality relationships in large U.S. cities and the possible impacts of a climate change,” Environmental Health Perspectives, Volume 105, No. 1, January 1997, Table 4 and pp. 90-91)

2020.  Heat-related deaths projected to double in some areas.  “Heating of the atmosphere can influence health through several routes. Most directly, it can generate more, stronger and hotter heat waves, which will become especially treacherous if the evenings fail to bring cooling relief. Unfortunately, a lack of nighttime cooling seems to be in the cards; the atmosphere is heating unevenly and is showing the biggest rises at night, in winter and at latitudes higher than about 50 degrees. In some places, the number of deaths related to heat waves is projected to double by 2020. Prolonged heat can, moreover, enhance production of smog and the dispersal of allergens. Both effects have been linked to respiratory symptoms.” (Paul R. Epstein, “Is Global Warming Harmful to Health?,” Scientific American, August, 2000)

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Every summer, more than 6,000 Americans are hospitalized for heat exposure, and 2005 data put the death toll that year at 180, according to the U.S. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. (6)

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2020-2029. Stanford study projects that intense heat waves are likely to occur as many as five times between 2020 and 2029 over areas of the western and central U.S.  “Exceptionally long heat waves and other hot events could become commonplace in the United States in the next 30 years [2010 – 2039], according to a new study by Stanford University climate scientists.  ‘Using a large suite of climate model experiments, we see a clear emergence of much more intense, hot conditions in the U.S. within the next three decades,’ said Noah Diffenbaugh, an assistant professor of environmental Earth system science at Stanford and the lead author of the study. . . . The [study, Intensification of hot extremes in the United States], took two years to complete and is co-authored by Moetasim Ashfaq, a former Stanford postdoctoral fellow now at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

The study comes on the heels of a recent NASA report that concluded that the previous decade, January 2000 to December 2009, was the warmest on record. . . . ‘This was an unprecedented experiment,’ Diffenbaugh said. ‘With the high-resolution [RegCM3] climate model, we can analyze geographic quadrants that are only 15.5 miles [25 kilometers] to a side. No one has ever completed this kind of climate analysis at such a high resolution.’ The results were surprising.

According to the climate models, an intense heat wave – equal to the longest on record from 1951 to 1999 [a period of 48 years] – is likely to occur as many as five times between 2020 and 2029 [a period of 9 years] over areas of the western and central United States. . . .

Besides harming human health and agriculture, these hot, dry conditions could lead to more droughts and wildfires in the near future, he said. And many of these climate change impacts could occur within the next two decades [2010-2030] -- years before the planet is likely to reach the 2-degree C threshold targeted by some governments and climate experts, [Diffenbaugh] added.” (Mark Shwartz, communications manager, Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford University, “Heat waves and extremely high temperatures could be commonplace in the U.S. by 2039, Stanford study finds,” Stanford Report, July 8, 2010 citing findings in Diffenbaugh, N., and M. Ashfaq. Intensification of hot extremes in the United States. Geophys. Res. Lett., (in press) DOI: 10.1029/2010GL043888, published August 6, 2010)

Number of Extremely Hot Seasons Per Decade

Projected heat for U.S. -- Source:  Diffenbaugh and Ashfaq, Aug., 6, 2010

2030s. Stanford study projects that during the 2030s most areas of Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico could endure at least seven seasons of intense heat waves.  "According to [Stanford University] climate models, an intense heat wave – equal to the longest on record from 1951 to 1999 – is likely to occur [more than five times during the 2030s]. . . .

‘Occurrence of the longest historical heat wave further intensifies in the 2030-2039 period, including greater than five occurrences per decade over much of the western U.S. and greater than three exceedences per decade over much of the eastern U.S.,’ the authors [Noah Diffenbaugh and Moetasim Ashfaq] wrote. . . . From 2030 to 2039, most areas of Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico could endure at least seven seasons equally as intense as the hottest season ever recorded between 1951 and 1999, the researchers concluded [in their study Intensification of hot extremes in the United States]. . . .

The researchers also determined that the hottest daily temperatures of the year from 1980 to 1999 are likely to occur at least twice as often across much of the U.S during the decade of the 2030s.  ‘By the decade of the 2030s, we see persistent, drier conditions over most of the U.S.,’ Diffenbaugh said. . . . Besides harming human health and agriculture, these hot, dry conditions could lead to more droughts and wildfires in the near future, he said.” (Mark Shwartz, communications manager, Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford University, “Heat waves and extremely high temperatures could be commonplace in the U.S. by 2039, Stanford study finds,” Stanford Report, July 8, 2010 citing findings in Diffenbaugh, N., and M. Ashfaq. Intensification of hot extremes in the United States. Geophys. Res. Lett., (in press) DOI: 10.1029/2010GL043888, August 6, 2010)

Number of Extremely Hot Seasons Per Decade, 2030-2039

"By 2039, most of the U.S. could experience at least four seasons equally as intense as the hottest season ever recorded from 1951-1999, according to Stanford University climate scientists. In most of Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico, the number of extremely hot seasons could be as high as seven." Source:  Diffenbaugh and Ashfaq, Aug., 6, 2010.

Does not include the effects of contributions of carbon dioxide and methane released into the atmosphere from permafrost melting.

  Listen to Texans Seek Relief From Heat Wave

2040.  By 2040 heat waves like the lethal 2003 heat wave are likely to take place in Europe every other year.  “Last week, Paul Della-Marta, a researcher at Switzerland's Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, presented findings at an international conference on climate science in Gwatt, Switzerland, showing that since 1880 the duration of heat waves in Western Europe has doubled and the number of unusually hot days in the region has nearly tripled. In a separate 2004 study, researchers at Britain's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research produced computer models showing that greenhouse gas emissions had doubled the likelihood of events like the lethal 2003 European heat wave, and that by 2040 it is likely such heat waves will take place there every other year.  

And researchers at the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., reported this week [week of August 4, 2006] that nighttime summer temperatures across the country have been unusually high for the past eight years, a record streak.” (Juliet Eilperin, Washington Post Staff Writer, “More Frequent Heat Waves Linked to Global Warming - U.S. and European Researchers Call Long Hot Spells Likely,” The Washington Post, August 4, 2006) 

2040.  By 2040 more than half of Europe's summers are likely to top deadly record temperatures of 2003 under scenarios developed by UK researchers.  “Europe's summer of 2003 seared itself into the record books as the hottest, deadliest summer the continent has endured in at least 500 years.  Temperatures in Paris topped 104 degrees. Even nightfall brought little or no relief.  Now, a new analysis [Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003] from researchers at the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research and Oxford University in Britain suggests more than half of the risk that the heat wave would occur can be traced to human influence on climate.   If concentrations of heat-trapping "greenhouse" gases from power plants and factories continue to increase, even at a modest pace, they say, by 2040 more than half of Europe's summers are likely [to] top those record temperatures of 2003. By 2100, the summer of 2003 could even stand as an unusually cool one.”  (Peter N. Spotts, Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor, “Heat wave risk rising with emissions,” The Christian Science Monitor, Boston, Massachusetts, December 2, 2004 citing findings in Stott, P. A., D. A. Stone, and M. R. Allen. 2004. Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature, 432, 610-614.  Corrigem. Nature, 436, 1200)

2040.  Heat waves predicted to sweep through many parts of Europe by 2040.  “Climate change experts predict that heat waves will sweep through many parts of Europe by 2040, according to the Met Office's Hadley Centre, a U.K. climate-research center — creating serious impacts on freshwater resources.” (No author credited, “Shrinking Swiss Glacier,” National Geographic News, March 19, 2010)

2043.  Extreme heat waves projected to reach the U.S. by 2043.  “New research shows that climate change will force the more than one billion people who live in tropical areas to adapt to extreme climates within the next decade. Extreme heat waves will likely reach the U.S. by 2043.  Published Oct. 9 [2013] in the journal Nature, the article [“The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability”] by scientists at the University of Hawaii at Manoa predicts that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at current rates, the annual average temperatures in many areas will be hotter than they have been in any year between 1860 and 2005. By 2047, the coldest temperatures would be warmer than the past hottest temperatures, the scientists say. . . . The results shocked us. Regardless of the scenario, changes will be coming soon,’ said [climatologist Camilo Mora]. ‘Within my generation, whatever climate we were used to will be a thing of the past.” (Danielle Elliot, CBS News, “Study: Unprecedented heat will reach U.S. in 30 years,” CBS News, October 10, 2013 announcing findings in Camilo Mara et al, “The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability,” Nature, doi:10.1038/nature12540, Volume 502, October 9, 2013, pp. 183–187)

2045.  Climate change heat events in the year 2045 projected to cause 156 additional deaths in the greater Seattle area.  “Climate change in Washington will likely lead to significantly more heat- and air pollution-related deaths throughout this century.  Projected warming would likely result in . . . 156 additional deaths in 2045 in the greater Seattle area alone..”  (Littell, J.S., M. McGuire Elsner, L.C. Whitely Binder, and A.K. Snover (eds), The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, A report by The Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, June 2009, p. 2)