2080

Global Warming Climate Change Forecasts - 2080

Climate Refugees | Global Warming Migration

2080.  Global warming projected to cause a mass migration of Mexicans to the U.S. by 2080 as a result of reduced crop yields in Mexico.  “[S]cientists are predicting another consequence of climate change: mass migration to the United States.  Between 1.4 million and 6.7 million Mexicans could migrate to the U.S. by 2080 as climate change reduces crop yields and agricultural production in Mexico, according to a study [Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico–US cross-border migration] published online this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.  The number could amount to 10% of the current population of Mexicans ages 15 to 65.

‘Assuming that the climate projections are correct, gradually over the next several decades heading toward the end of the century, [climate change] becomes one of the more important factors in driving Mexicans across the border, all other things being equal,’ said study author Michael Oppenheimer, professor of geosciences and international affairs at Princeton University.” 

(Anna Gorman, anna.gorman@latimes.com, Los Angeles Times, “Climate change linked to possible mass Mexican migration to U.S. - Lower crop yields and agricultural production could drive as many as 6.7 million across the border by 2080, a study finds,” Los Angeles Times, July 26, 2010 citing findings in Shuaizhang Feng, Alan B. Krueger, and Michael Oppenheimer, "Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico–US cross-border migration," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Published online before print July 26, 2010, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1002632107)

2080.  By 2080 global warming could induce 1.4 to 6.7 million Mexicans to emigrate to the U.S. in search of work.  “Global warming could drive millions more Mexicans into the United States in search of work by 2080 because of diminishing crop yields in Mexico, a study [Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico–US cross-border migration] released Monday [July 26, 2010] showed.  ‘Depending on the warming scenarios used and adaptation levels assumed... climate change is estimated to induce 1.4 to 6.7 million adult Mexicans (or two percent to 10 percent of the current population aged 15-65 years) to emigrate as a result of declines in agricultural productivity alone,’ the study said.  Researchers led by Michael Oppenheimer of the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University estimated the sensitivity of migration to climate change and predicted the number of Mexicans who would migrate under a range of different climate and crop yield scenarios. 

The worst-case scenario would occur if temperatures were to rise by 1.8 to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit by 2080, if farming methods had not been adapted to cope with global warming and if higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide had not spurred plant growth. This would mean crop yields in Mexico would fall by 39 to 48 percent, the study said.  ‘In that case, the increase in Mexico's emigration as a share of population would be between 7.8 percent and 9.6 percent,’ said the study, which was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.  ‘Using today's population of 70 million as the base for the age 15-65 year population in Mexico, this percentage increase corresponds to an additional 5.5 to 6.7 million emigrants,’ it said.” (“Climate change could spur increased Mexican migration to US,” Agence France-Presse, MNN Mother Nature Network, Monday, July 26, 2010 citing findings in Shuaizhang Feng, Alan B. Krueger, and Michael Oppenheimer, "Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico–US cross-border migration," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Published online before print July 26, 2010, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1002632107)

Fire - Global Warming | Wildfires Climate Change

Potential for Wildfires in California in 2085

2085.  Predicted wildfire frequency in California in 2085.  "The University of California at Merced prepared a study estimating how climate change may alter the frequency of large wildfires in California. The example [above] shows the potential for wildfires in 2085 as predicted by the GFDL climate projection model under the A2 emissions scenario.  The scale shows areas affected by different frequencies of wildfires under a climate change scenario by the end of this century. For example, 4.0 means the danger of wildfires would be four times more than in the historical period."  (California Climate Change Portal, "Potential Changes in Wildfire Regimes in California," Climate Change Policy & Climate Action Team, Sacramento, California, last modified December 3, 2009)