2015 Global Warming

Global Warming Forecasts - 2015 

2015 Snapshot:
Climate change converging forecasts for the year 2015

Temperatures and Heat Waves

2010 – 2019.  Stanford computer models project a dramatic spike in extreme seasonal temperatures during the period 2010 - 2019.  “The Stanford team also forecast a dramatic spike in extreme seasonal temperatures during the current decade [2010 – 2019]. Temperatures equaling the hottest season on record from 1951 to 1999 could occur four times between now [2010] and 2019 over much of the U.S., according to the researchers.  The 2020s and 2030s could be even hotter, particularly in the American West.” (Mark Shwartz, communications manager, Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford University, “Heat waves and extremely high temperatures could be commonplace in the U.S. by 2039, Stanford study finds,” Stanford Report, July 8, 2010 citing findings in Diffenbaugh, N., and M. Ashfaq. Intensification of hot extremes in the United States. Geophys. Res. Lett., (in press) DOI: 10.1029/2010GL043888, August 6, 2010)

See additional forecasts of global warming heat waves.

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Between 2010 and 2019 [9 years], temperatures equaling the hottest season on record from 1951 to 1999 [a 48 year period] could occur four times over much of the U.S. (6) 

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2015.  Global sales of air conditioners projected to reach 78.8 million units by 2015.  “Tempered by the recent economic recession, which forced a considerable decline in its growth over the last few years, the global market for air conditioning systems is expected recover poise and reach 78.8 million units in volume sales by 2015. Growth in the short to medium term period will be driven by factors such as focus on energy efficient air conditioners, growing replacement needs and increasing demand from developing markets. . . . Global warming continues to remain a major factor propelling market demand, especially in the residential segment. Depletion of ozone layer, El Nino effect, and global warming, make up for the primary reasons that create the need for air conditioning systems.” (“Air Conditioning Systems - A Global Strategic Business Report – new report released,” CompaniesandMarkets.com delivered by Newstex, June 30, 2010 reporting findings in Air Conditioning Systems: A Global Strategic Business Report)

• How will the existing stock of air conditioners perform under long, intense heat wave conditions with a dramatic spike in temperatures?
• What is the current product life of the average air conditioner in-place and how will product life be affected by more frequent heat waves and temperature spikes?
  
• How will long, intense heat waves affect the performance and failure rates of the existing stock of air conditioners?
• Are new air conditioners being designed to operate effectively under the forecasted high intensity heat wave operating conditions? Or are current models still being designed based on a presumption of the continuation of historical temperature and climate patterns?
  

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Climate experts predict that there is a 50% chance that the average temperature of the world will increase by 5° Celsius (11°F).  A 5° Celsius change is the difference between our world today and the world during the last ice age. 

So think about what 5 degrees C will mean going the other way.  A very different world.  So if you want that for your kids and grand kids, we can continue doing what we’re doing. (10)

— Dr. Steven Chu
U.S. Secretary of Energy

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2014.  Britain’s Met Office projects 2014 temperature likely to be 0.3 degrees Celsius warmer than 2004.  “Here is the climate forecast for the next decade [2007-2014]; although global warming will be held in check for a few years, it will come roaring back to send the mercury rising before 2014.  This is the prediction of the first computer model of the global climate designed to make forecasts over a timescale of around a decade, developed by scientists at the Met Office.  The new model developed at the Met's Hadley Centre in Exeter, and described in the journal Science, predicts that warming will slow during the next few years but then speed up again, and that at least half of the years after 2009 will be warmer than 1998, the warmest year on record. 

Over the 10-year period [2007-2014] as a whole, climate continues to warm and 2014 is likely to be 0.3 deg C [0.3 degrees Celsius] warmer than 2004.  The overall trend in warming is driven by greenhouse gas emissions but this warming effect will be broadly cancelled out over the next few years by the changing patterns of the ocean temperatures.”  (Roger Highfield, Science Editor, “Global warming forecast predicts rise in 2014,” The Daily Telegraph, London, England, United Kingdom, August 9, 2007 reporting findings in Doug M. Smith, Stephen Cusack, Andrew W. Colman, Chris K. Folland, Glen R. Harris, and James M. Murphy, “Improved Surface Temperature Prediction for the Coming Decade from a Global Climate Model,” Science, August 10, 2007 317: 796-799 DOI: 10.1126/science.1139540)

Don McConnell, Battelle, on Climate Change

View McConnell's PowerPoint presentation.  

2015 Greenhouse Gas Emissions

2015. IPCC projects greenhouse gas emissions must stabilize by 2015.  “The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] warns that the planet is warming faster than previously predicted.  The Nobel Prize winning group of scientists says carbon and other heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions must stabilize by 2015 and then decline to head off the worst consequences from climate change.” (Lisa Schlein, “VOA News: U.S. Wants More Balanced Approach To Climate Change,” Voice of America, US Fed News Service, Including US State News, November 27, 2007)

2015.  By 2015 10 billion tonnes is projected to be the maximum volume of carbon dioxide that humans may emit to remain below the critical threshold for climate warming of two degrees Celsius.  “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calculated projected temperature changes for various scenarios in 2007 and researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg [Germany] have now gone one step further: they have developed a new model that specifies the maximum volumes of carbon dioxide that humans may emit to remain below the critical threshold for climate warming of two degrees Celsius. . . .

With the help of new models for a prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, scientists from all over Europe have now calculated for the first time the extent to which the global carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced to halt global warming.  ‘What’s new about this research is that we have integrated the carbon cycle into our model to obtain the emissions data,’ says Erich Roeckner. According to the model, admissible carbon dioxide emissions will increase from approximately seven billion tonnes of carbon in the year 2000 to a maximum value of around ten billion tonnes in 2015. 

In order to achieve the long-term stabilisation of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, the emissions will then have to be reduced by 56 percent by the year 2050 and approach zero towards the end of this century.   Although, based on these calculations, global warming would remain under the two-degree threshold until 2100, further warming may be expected in the long term:  ‘It will take centuries for the global climate system to stabilise,’ says Erich Roeckner.”  (Press release, “New carbon dioxide emissions model,” Max Planck Society, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, August 2, 2010)

2015.  Projection that the carbon emissions growth rate of 2% to 3% per year must flatline between 2015 and 2020 in order to stabilize the climate.  “‘What most don't realise is that the biggest impact from climate change will be shifts in precipitation, not temperature increase,’ [Don McConnell, president of Battelle Energy Technology] told IPS {Inter Press Service] at the McCormick Energy Solutions Conference at Ohio State University this week.  Such changes have already been documented, with increasing frequency and severity of flooding and droughts.  In July [2009], researchers reported in the journal Nature Geoscience that the normal band of heavy rainfall around the equator has been creeping north, leaving areas once blessed with abundant rainfall high and dry.  ‘We're talking about the most prominent rainfall feature on the planet, one that many people depend on as the source of their freshwater because there is no groundwater to speak of where they live,’ said Julian Sachs, associate professor of oceanography at the University of Washington, in a release.

Global energy use is expected to climb 55 percent between 2005 and 2030, said McConnell, and without major changes, most of that increase will come from fossil fuels - pushing carbon emissions far beyond the point of unstoppable, catastrophic climate change, scientists agree.  To have an even chance of stabilising the climate at roughly two degrees C of warming, the current two- to three-percent annual growth in carbon emissions must flatline between 2015 and 2020 and start to decline by three percent per year, according to the latest scientific evidence. That means the target for the U.N. climate meeting in Copenhagen in December is a new international agreement to reduce global emissions by 50 percent compared to 1990 and to do that by 2050.” Emphasis added. (Stephen Leahy, “Climate Change: Time To Act Is Running Out, Scientists Warn,” Inter Press Service English News Wire, September 25, 2009)

Wildfires | Forest Fires

2015.  By 2015 10 million acres of national forests may be at high risk of uncontrollable, catastrophic wildfires.  “In 1997, [the U.S. Forest Service] announced its goal to improve forest health by resolving the problems of uncontrollable, catastrophic wildfires on national forests by the end of fiscal year 2015. . . . However, because it lacks adequate data, the Forest Service has not yet developed a cohesive strategy for addressing several factors that present significant barriers to improving the health of the national forests by reducing fuels.  As a result, many acres of national forests in the interior West may remain at high risk of uncontrollable wildfire at the end of fiscal year 2015. . . . . In 1997, the Chief of the Forest Service adopted an internal agency recommendation to increase the number of acres on which fuels are reduced from about 570,000 acres to 3 million acres annually by fiscal year 2005 and to continue this level until the year 2015. 

However, GAO’s analysis of the agency’s initial plans and data indicate that even this level of effort may leave about 10 million acres of the current 39 million acres at high risk of catastrophic wildfire. . . . Our preliminary analysis of the Forest Service’s fuel reduction costs—which, according to the agency’s data average about $320 per acre for the combination of burning and mechanical removal that is necessary in the interior West—indicates that as much as $12 billion, or about $725 million a year, may be needed to treat the 39 million acres at high risk of uncontrollable wildfire by the end of fiscal year 2015.” (GAO, Western National Forests, A Cohesive Strategy is Needed to Address Catastrophic Wildfire Threats,  Report to the Subcommittee on Forests and Forest Health, Committee on Resources, House of Representatives, U.S. General Accounting Office, GAO/RCED-99-65, Washington, DC, April 1999, pp. 3, 4, 6, 8, 41, 45) 

See a more comprehensive summary of global warming fire forecasts. 

Water Shortages 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2017

2013.  Water shortages projected for 36 states by 2013.  “Water managers in most states expect shortages of freshwater in the next decade [2003 – 2013] — even without drought — and the consequences may be severe, according to a General Accounting Office [GAO] report. . . . The nation's capacity for building new dams and reservoirs to store surface water is limited, and groundwater in many parts of the country is being depleted faster than it can be replenished, the report said. 

At the same time, the GAO reported, a growing population and increased pressure to allocate water to fisheries and the environment are placing new demands on t he freshwater supply.  The potential effects of climate change also create uncertainty about future water availability and use, the report said. Most climate experts expect global warming to create more droughts and more extreme storms. 

As a result, water managers in 36 states surveyed by the GAO said they anticipate water shortages in the next 10 years [2003 - 2013] under ‘average water conditions.’  Two states · Colorado and South Carolina · expect shortages to be statewide. . . .

But even without drought conditions, the shortages could have ‘severe consequences,’ the report said.  There have been eight water shortages resulting from drought or heat waves over the past 20 years resulting in more than $1 billion in damages each, the report said. The most costly totaled over $40 billion in damages to the economies of the central and eastern United States in the summer of 1988.”  Cost of global warming.  (Joan Lowy, Scripps Howard News Service, “Most states predict water shortages in next decade,” Scripps Howard News Service, Thursday, July 10, 2003 reporting findings in U.S. General Accounting Office, "Freshwater Supply - States' Views of How Federal Agencies Could Help Them Meet the Challenges of Expected Shortages," GAO-03-514, July 2003) 

2013.  Lake Mead’s water levels could drop below its water intake pipes by 2013.  “Southern Nevada Water Authority chief Pat Mulroy . . . said the authority is in a race against time to complete a new [third intake] system [or third straw] to draw water from deep in Lake Mead [Hoover Dam].  Roughly 90 percent of the [Las Vegas] valley's drinking water is drawn from the lake through the two existing intakes, but the reservoir's surface could shrink below the level of one of those pipes by 2013.” (Pat Mulroy, general manager of Southern Nevada Water Authority quoted in Henry Brean, hbrean@reviewjournal.com, 702-383-0350 “Water Authority: Mulroy calls new Lake Mead intake system is critical,” Las Vegas Review-Journal, Las Vegas, Nevada, May 22, 2009)  See videos of Pat Mulroy.

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We're in a race against time... (7)

We're teetering on the first shortage right now.  How quickly [Lake] Mead goes down [is based on hydrology] probability. But the whole probability analysis, because of climate change, has been thrown out the window. We're experiencing anomaly after anomaly. (8)

 — Pat Mulroy, General Manager
Southern Nevada Water Authority

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2013.  Hydroelectric turbines at Hoover Dam could cease generating electricity by 2013.  “After 75 years of steadily cranking out electricity for California, Arizona and Nevada, the mighty turbines of the Hoover Dam could cease turning as soon as 2013, if water levels in the lake that feeds the dam don't start to recover, say water and dam experts.  Under pressure from the region's growing population and years of drought, Lake Mead was down to 1,087 feet, a 54-year low, as of Wednesday [September 8, 2010].  If the lake loses 10 feet a year, as it has recently, it will soon reach 1,050 feet, the level below which the turbines can no longer run.

Those hydroelectric generators produce cheap electricity for the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California [MWD], which is responsible for pumping water across the Colorado River Aqueduct to hydrate much of Southern California.  Without that power, Metropolitan's costs to transport water will double or even triple, a district executive said. . . The decrease in water already experienced at Lake Mead has reduced output from the turbines from 130 megawatts of peak capacity to 100, according to Peter DiDonato, who runs the Hoover Dam's hydroelectric generators. . .

For every foot of elevation lost in Lake Mead -- about 100,000 acre feet of water, or enough for 200,000 households -- the dam produces 5.7 megawatts less power.  That's because at lower water pressure, air bubbles flow through with the water, causing the turbines to lose efficiency. . . . Losing power from the Hoover Dam would raise expenses for Metropolitan [see MWD map]  and for Southern California Edison [SCE], both of which buy power for the dam at low rates. Edison has already begun preparations for lower power generation from the dam, which represents 0.3 percent of its portfolio, said Gil Alexander, a spokesman for the utility. 

The dam supplies 60 percent of Metropolitan's power needs, said Brian Thomas, chief financial officer and assistant general manager of the agency.  Without power from the dam, Metropolitan would turn to the spot electricity market and pay double or triple the cost, depending on how much less power the dam is producing.”  (Eric Wolff, ewolff@nctimes.com, 760-740-5412, “Hoover Dam could stop generating electricity as soon as 2013, officials fear,” North County Times, Escondido, California, September 12, 2010)

Declining Water Levels at Lake Mead Require
Construction of Third Intake to Draw from Deeper Water

Southern Nevada Water Authority’s (SNWA) new Lake Mead Intake No. 3 is being built to protect against reductions in electricity generation system capacity caused by declining lake levels as well as water shortages incurred by the City of Las Vegas which depends on the lake for 90% of its water supply.  Source: Southern Nevada Water Authority and Jean Reid Norman, “Water demand drop-off postpones intake work,” Las Vegas Sun, Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009.

2014.  10% chance that Lake Mead could be dry by 2014.  “[In When will Lake Mead go dry?, a Scripps Institution of Oceanography study, research marine physicist Dr. Tim Barnett and climate scientist David Pierce] estimated that there is a 10 percent chance that Lake Mead could be dry by 2014. . . . The researchers add that even if water agencies follow their current drought contingency plans, it might not be enough to counter natural forces, especially if the region enters a period of sustained drought and/or human-induced climate changes occur as currently predicted. . . . ‘When expected changes due to global warming are included as well, currently scheduled depletions are simply not sustainable,’ wrote Barnett and Pierce in the paper.” (“Lake Mead Could Be Dry by 2021,” news release, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, Tuesday, February 12, 2008 reporting findings in Tim P. Barnett and David W. Pierce, "When will Lake Mead go dry?," Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, Journal of Water Resources Research, January 23, 2008)  See Barnett video on “Outlook for Lake Mead” and “How the forecast was created.”

2015.  Nearly half the the world’s population will live in water-stressed countries by 2015.  “By 2015 nearly half the world's population — more than 3 billion people — will live in countries that are "water-stressed" — have less than 1,700 cubic meters of water per capita per year mostly in Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and northern China. (Global Trends 2015, NIC 2000-02, National Intelligence Council, Washington, DC, December 2000, p. 27)

World Water Availability 2015

National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2015, Dec. 2000, p. 29 citing original source as Stockholm Environmental Institute, 1997: Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World.

2015.  Measures to increase water availability will not be sufficient to ease water shortages in water-stressed countries by 2015.  “Measures undertaken to increase water availability and to ease acute water shortages — using water more efficiently, expanding use of desalinization, developing genetically modified crops that use less water or more saline  water, and importing water — will not be sufficient to substantially change the outlook for water shortages in 2015. Many will be expensive: policies to price water more realistically are not likely to be broadly implemented within the next 15 years and subsidizing water is politically sensitive for the many low-income countries short of water because their populations expect cheap water.  Water has been a source of contention historically, but no water dispute has been a cause of open interstate conflict; indeed, water shortages often have stimulated cooperative arrangements for sharing the scarce resource.  But as countries press against the limits of available water between now and 2015, the possibility of conflict will increase.” (Global Trends 2015, NIC 2000-02, National Intelligence Council, Washington, DC, December 2000, p. 27)

2015.  Water-sharing arrangements between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan likely to become more contentious.  “Nearly one-half of the world’s land surface consists of river basins shared by more than one country, and more than 30 nations receive more than one-third of their water from outside their borders. Turkey is building new dams and irrigation projects on the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, which will affect water flows into Syria and Iraq—two countries that will experience considerable population growth. Egypt is proceeding with a major diversion of water from the Nile, which flows from Ethiopia and Sudan, both of which will want to draw more water from the Nile for their own development by 2015.  Water-sharing arrangements are likely to become more contentious.” (Global Trends 2015, NIC 2000-02, National Intelligence Council, Washington, DC, December 2000, p. 28)

2017.  Scripps study projects a 50% chance that Lake Mead reservoir levels will drop too low to allow hydroelectric power generation at Hoover Dam by 2017.  “[In When will Lake Mead go dry?, a Scripps Institution of Oceanography study, research marine physicist Dr. Tim Barnett and climate scientist David Pierce predicted] that there is a 50 percent chance that reservoir levels will drop too low to allow hydroelectric power generation [at Hoover Dam] by 2017.  The researchers add that even if water agencies follow their current drought contingency plans, it might not be enough to counter natural forces, especially if the region enters a period of sustained drought and/or human-induced climate changes occur as currently predicted. . . . ‘When expected changes due to global warming are included as well, currently scheduled depletions are simply not sustainable,’ wrote Barnett and Pierce in the paper.” (“Lake Mead Could Be Dry by 2021,” news release, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, Tuesday, February 12, 2008 reporting findings in Tim P. Barnett and David W. Pierce, "When will Lake Mead go dry?," Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, Journal of Water Resources Research, January 23, 2008)

2017.  Sana’a, Yemen predicted to run out of water in 2017.  “[Yemen’s] capital Sana’a is predicted to run out of water in 2017 as four times as much water is taken out of its river basin as falls into it each year.  Of the country’s 21 main water aquifers, 19 are no longer being replenished after a drought and increased demand.  The water situation is so serious the government has considered moving the capital as well as desalinating coastal seawater and pumping it 2,000 metres uphill to Sana’a.” (Maudhe Barlow, Council of Canadians and author of Blue Covenant quoted in Martin Khor, director@southcentre.org, “Make Global Water Crisis a Top Priority Issue,” Global Geopolitics & Political Economy / IDN, Geneva, Switzerland, September 29, 2010) 

Which areas of the U.S. and the world are likely to suffer most from water scarcity due to climate change?

For more detailed chronological forecasts of water supply and water shortages, see climate change water resources. 

Food Supplies

2015.  By 2015 a number of developing countries will be unable to maintain their levels of irrigated agriculture.  “In the developing world, 80 percent of water usage goes into agriculture, a proportion that is not sustainable; and in 2015 a number of developing countries will be unable to maintain their levels of irrigated agriculture.  Overpumping of groundwater in many of the world’s important grain-growing regions will be an increasing problem:  about 1,000 tons of water are needed to produce a ton of grain.  The water table under some of the major grain-producing areas in northern China is falling at a rate of five feet per year, and water tables throughout India are falling an average of 3-10 feet per year.” ("Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts," NIC 2000-02, National Intelligence Council, Washington, DC, December 2000)

Kilimanjaro Glacier Melting

2015 – 2020.  Mt. Kilimanjaro’s remaining ice fields likely to disappear between 2015 and 2020.  “Six ice cores from Kilimanjaro provide an ~11.7-thousand-year record of Holocene climate and environmental variability for eastern equatorial Africa, including three periods of abrupt climate change: ~8.3, ~5.2, and ~4 thousand years ago (ka). The latter is coincident with the "First Dark Age," the period of the greatest historically recorded drought in tropical Africa. Variable deposition of F- and Na+ during the African Humid Period suggests rapidly fluctuating lake levels between ~11.7 and 4 ka. Over the 20th century, the areal extent of Kilimanjaro's ice fields has decreased ~80%, and if current climatological conditions persist, the remaining ice fields are likely to disappear between 2015 and 2020.” (Lonnie G. Thompson, Ellen Mosley-Thompson, Mary E. Davis, Keith A. Henderson, Henry H. Brecher,1 Victor S. Zagorodnov, Tracy A. Mashiotta, Ping-Nan Lin, Vladimir N. Mikhalenko, Douglas R. Hardy, Jürg Beer, “Kilimanjaro Ice Core Records: Evidence of Holocene Climate Change in Tropical Africa,” Science, October 18, 2002:Vol. 298. no. 5593, pp. 589 – 593)  View map of Mt. Kilimanjaro.  See interview with glaciologist, Dr. Lonnie Thompson. 

Population 2015

2015.  World population projected by the U.S. Census Bureau to reach 7.2 billion by 2015.  7,230,563,690.  (U.S. Census Bureau, “Total Midyear Population for the World: 1950-2050,” International Database, U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 866-758-1060, Suitland-Silver Hill, Maryland, June 28, 2010)

2015.  China's population projected to reach 1.36 billion by 2015.  1,361,513.  (U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, Population Division, 866-758-1060, Suitland-Silver Hill, Maryland, Friday, November 19, 2010)

2015.  India’s population projected to reach 1.25 billion by 2015.  1,251,696.  (U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, Population Division, 866-758-1060, Suitland-Silver Hill, Maryland, Friday, November 19, 2010)

2015.  U.S. population projected to reach 325.5 million by 2015. 325,540,000.  Resident population as of July 1.  (U.S. Census Bureau, "Projections of the Population and Components of Change for the United States: 2010 to 2050," National Population Projections, Released 2008, Based on Census 2000, Population Division, 866-758-1060, Washington, DC, retrieved August 27, 2010)

2015.  Mexico’s president predicts illegal immigration to the U.S. will end by 2015.  “Could Mexico's plunging birthrate and growing economy end illegal immigration to the United States?  Mexican President Vicente Fox says they could. As soon as 2015, Mexico will be using ‘100 percent of its work force,’ he said, and his countrymen won't need to cross the border in search of jobs. . . . ‘By 2015, Mexico will be needing 100 percent of its work force ... to support our economy and our retirees,’ Fox said in an interview last week in Ensenada.” (Sandra Dibble, Staff Writer, Fox predicts Mexico's successes - Jobs boom could spell the end of illegal immigration by 2015,” San Diego Union-Tribune, San Diego, California, June 10, 2006, p. A-3)

U.S. Economy

2015.  Outsourcing of jobs estimated to cause U.S. tax revenue losses of $34 billion by 2015.  “As U.S. companies shift jobs to low-paid workers in developing nations, a growing number of economists and politicians worry that offshore outsourcing could damage the nation's fiscal health by draining tax coffers. . . . [U]p to one-quarter of lost wages translate to lost tax revenues, by conventional accounting methods. So if 3.3 million white-collar jobs and $136 billion in wages move overseas by 2015 as Forrester Research predicts, that means federal, state and local tax receipts could decline as much as $34 billion.  ‘Here's the big reason why tax revenues are declining: All these jobs are leaving the country,’ said John McGowan, professor of accounting at Saint Louis University. ‘We need to start talking about this problem and not just blithely saying, 'Free trade is the solution' just because it boosts corporate profits and Wall Street likes it.’  Cynthia Kroll, senior regional economist at the University of California, Berkeley, said offshoring could jeopardize U.S. dominance in emerging fields such as genetics and nanotechnology. She estimates that about one in nine jobs nationwide -- one in six in Silicon Valley -- could be vulnerable.” (Rachel Konrad, AP Business Writer, “Offshoring jobs could drain public coffers, critics warn,” Associated Press, April 6, 2004)

2015.  Retirement of baby boomers projected to result in a $413 billion loss of U.S. economic output.  “A new study projects the retirement of the baby boomer generation will cost the economy $413 billion in lost economic output by 2015. . . . If a new Federal Reserve report is correct, the lost labor of the 77 million boomers will be so hard to replace that over the next decade the national economy will grow at a significantly slower pace than it has in the past 10 years.  How much slower? The lost growth, by one estimate, will come to $1,322 per person by 2015 - or $13 billion, equal to nearly double the value of all goods and services produced in Minnesota in 2004.  That's a lot of money for what sounds like a small change: an average growth rate in the next 10 years that's 0.3 percent slower than it would be without the boomer exodus.  The new report predicting that outcome was compiled by five economists at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Their preliminary draft (the final version is expected in July) has been called ‘revolutionary’ by one Wall Street economist.” (Mike Meyers, Staff Writer, 612-673-1746, “Workforce Fadeout,” Star Tribune: Newspaper of the Twin Cities, Minneapolis, Minnesota, April 23, 2006, p. 1D reporting findings of preliminary draft report of Stephanie R. Aaronson, Bruce Fallick, Andrew Figura, and Jonathan F. Pingle, and William L. Wascher, “The Recent Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate and Its Implications for Potential Labor Supply,” Brookings Paper on Economic Activity, vol. 1, 2006, pp. 69-154)

Food Supplies

2015.  USDA projects 40% of U.S. vegetables to be imported from China by 2015.  “Imagine grocery stores void of fresh produce, or any foods made with fruits, vegetables or nuts.  It's not an impossible scenario if the mysterious killer that's been wiping out the nation's honeybees since last fall [2006] isn't found soon.  Honeybees don't just make honey; they pollinate some of the tastiest flowering crops we have.  Among them are apples, nuts, avocados, soybeans, asparagus, broccoli, celery, squash and cucumbers. And lots of sweet and tart stuff, too, including citrus fruit, peaches, kiwi, cherries, blueberries, cranberries, strawberries, cantaloupe and other melons.

‘About 1/3 of the human diet is from pollinated plants,’ said Mike Price, owner of Bees- N-the-Keys. ‘Of those plants, 80 percent of them are pollinated by the honeybee. So life would change drastically if the bees disappeared.’ . . . Even cattle, which feed on alfalfa, depend on bees.  So if the collapse [honeybee colony collapse disorder] worsens, we could end up being ‘stuck with grains and water,’ said Kevin Hackett, the national program leader for USDA's bee and pollination program. ‘This is the biggest general threat to our food supply.’ . . . [S]tates and industries [are paying] to have [honeybee] colonies transported to help support their own crops.  For example, growers in California are paying thousands of dollars to beekeepers to send their bees to help support the state's almond production. California is the world's largest producer of almonds - which cannot grow without honeybees.  [Jerry Hayes, chief of the apiary section of the Florida Bureau of Plant & Apiary Inspection] said that 1 million honeybee colonies are needed annually by California's almond industry to maintain production levels. There are only 2.4 million colonies in the whole country.  It's no wonder then why many fruit and vegetable crops are facing shortages, Hayes said.

The USDA is estimating that by 2015, 40 percent of our nation's vegetables will be imported from China, and by 2050, the U.S. will be a net food importer, meaning we'll be importing more food than we export.  Hayes said there's no easy or practical way to mimic pollination either.  ‘In China they have thousands of guys that go around with Q-tips,’ he said. ‘They work for a bowl of rice.’” (Seth Borenstein, The Associated Press, “Agriculture community abuzz over honeybee die-off,” The Key West Citizen, Key West, Florida, May 13, 2007, p. D001)

Technology

2014.  Energy saving solar technology to be built into asphalt, paint and windows. According to an IBM survey conducted with researchers at IBM's research labs, in the next five years [2009 - 2014], “[s]olar energy will become an affordable option for you and your neighbors. Until now, the materials and the process of producing solar cells to convert into solar energy have been too costly for widespread adoption. But now this is changing with the creation of ‘thin-film’ solar cells, a new type of cost-efficient solar cell that can be 100 times thinner than silicon-wafer cells and produced at a lower cost.  These new thin-film solar cells can be ‘printed’ and arranged on a flexible backing, suitable for not only the tops, but also the sides of buildings, tinted windows, cell phones, notebook computers, cars, and even clothing.” (Samson Tai, Chief Technologist, IBM Innovation Network, Hong Kong, Life-changing innovations for the next five years, IBM press release, Armonk, New York, March 29, 2009)