Water Shortages

Water Supply Shortages | Water Scarcity

2013 - Climate Change and Water Supplies

2013.  Lake Mead’s water levels could drop below its water intake pipes by 2013.  “Southern Nevada Water Authority chief Pat Mulroy . . . said the authority is in a race against time to complete a new [third intake] system [or third straw] to draw water from deep in Lake Mead [Hoover Dam].  Roughly 90 percent of the [Las Vegas] valley's drinking water is drawn from the lake through the two existing intakes, but the reservoir's surface could shrink below the level of one of those pipes by 2013.” (Pat Mulroy, general manager of Southern Nevada Water Authority quoted in Henry Brean, hbrean@reviewjournal.com, 702-383-0350 “Water Authority: Mulroy calls new Lake Mead intake system is critical,” Las Vegas Review-Journal, Las Vegas, Nevada, May 22, 2009)  See videos of Pat Mulroy speaking on water issues. 

Hoover Dam - Lake Mead Water Levels, 1983 and 2007

Source: Pat Mulroy, General Manager, Southern Nevada Water Authority, Lake Mead Intake No. 3, Keynote address, PowerPoint presentation, Environmental Services Association of Alberta, Banff, Alberta, Canada, April 22, 2010

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We're in a race against time... (7)

  — Pat Mulroy, General Manager
Southern Nevada Water Authority

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 Are scientists and policy-makers underestimating the potential severity of water shortages? 

How have climate change forecasts compared
to real world observations of the forecast periods?

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 2013.  Hydroelectric turbines at Hoover Dam could cease generating electricity by 2013.  “After 75 years of steadily cranking out electricity for California, Arizona and Nevada, the mighty turbines of the Hoover Dam could cease turning as soon as 2013, if water levels in the lake that feeds the dam don't start to recover, say water and dam experts.  Under pressure from the region's growing population and years of drought, Lake Mead was down to 1,087 feet, a 54-year low, as of Wednesday [September 8, 2010].  If the lake loses 10 feet a year, as it has recently, it will soon reach 1,050 feet, the level below which the turbines can no longer run.

Those hydroelectric generators produce cheap electricity for the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California [MWD], which is responsible for pumping water across the Colorado River Aqueduct to hydrate much of Southern California.  Without that power, Metropolitan's costs to transport water will double or even triple, a district executive said. . . The decrease in water already experienced at Lake Mead has reduced output from the turbines from 130 megawatts of peak capacity to 100, according to Peter DiDonato, who runs the Hoover Dam's hydroelectric generators. . .

For every foot of elevation lost in Lake Mead -- about 100,000 acre feet of water, or enough for 200,000 households -- the dam produces 5.7 megawatts less power.  That's because at lower water pressure, air bubbles flow through with the water, causing the turbines to lose efficiency. . . . Losing power from the Hoover Dam would raise expenses for Metropolitan [see MWD map]  and for Southern California Edison [SCE], both of which buy power for the dam at low rates. Edison has already begun preparations for lower power generation from the dam, which represents 0.3 percent of its portfolio, said Gil Alexander, a spokesman for the utility. 

The dam supplies 60 percent of Metropolitan's power needs, said Brian Thomas, chief financial officer and assistant general manager of the agency.  Without power from the dam, Metropolitan would turn to the spot electricity market and pay double or triple the cost, depending on how much less power the dam is producing.”  (Eric Wolff, ewolff@nctimes.com, 760-740-5412, “Hoover Dam could stop generating electricity as soon as 2013, officials fear,” North County Times, Escondido, California, September 12, 2010)

Declining Water Levels at Lake Mead Require
Construction of Third Intake to Draw from Deeper Water

Southern Nevada Water Authority’s (SNWA) new Lake Mead Intake No. 3 is being built to protect against reductions in electricity generation system capacity caused by declining lake levels as well as water shortages incurred by the City of Las Vegas which depends on the lake for 90% of its water supply.  Third straw Lake Mead.  Source: Southern Nevada Water Authority and Jean Reid Norman, “Water demand drop-off postpones intake work,” Las Vegas Sun, Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009. 

Americans lose 30% of their tap water to leaky and inefficient municipal systems before it even gets piped into homes. (9)

Richard Meeusen
CEO, Badger Meter

2014 - Global Warming and Water Supplies

2014.  10% chance that Lake Mead could be dry by 2014.  “[In When will Lake Mead go dry?, a Scripps Institution of Oceanography study, research marine physicist Dr. Tim Barnett and climate scientist David Pierce] estimated that there is a 10 percent chance that Lake Mead could be dry by 2014."  (“Lake Mead Could Be Dry by 2021,” news release, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, Tuesday, February 12, 2008 reporting findings in Tim P. Barnett and David W. Pierce, "When will Lake Mead go dry?," Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, Journal of Water Resources Research, January 23, 2008)  See Barnett video on “Outlook for Lake Mead” and “How the forecast was created.” 

2015 Climate Change and Water Availability

2015.  Nearly half the the world’s population will live in water-stressed countries by 2015.  “By 2015 nearly half the world's population — more than 3 billion people — will live in countries that are "water-stressed" — have less than 1,700 cubic meters of water per capita per year mostly in Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and northern China. (Global Trends 2015, NIC 2000-02, National Intelligence Council, Washington, DC, December 2000, p. 27)

2015.  Measures to increase water availability will not be sufficient to ease water shortages in water-stressed countries by 2015.  “Measures undertaken to increase water availability and to ease acute water shortages — using water more efficiently, expanding use of desalinization, developing genetically modified crops that use less water or more saline  water, and importing water — will not be sufficient to substantially change the outlook for water shortages in 2015. Many will be expensive: policies to price water more realistically are not likely to be broadly implemented within the next 15 years and subsidizing water is politically sensitive for the many low-income countries short of water because their populations expect cheap water.  Water has been a source of contention historically, but no water dispute has been a cause of open interstate conflict; indeed, water shortages often have stimulated cooperative arrangements for sharing the scarce resource.  But as countries press against the limits of available water between now and 2015, the possibility of conflict will increase.” (Global Trends 2015, NIC 2000-02, National Intelligence Council, Washington, DC, December 2000, p. 27)

2015.  Water-sharing arrangements between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan likely to become more contentious.  “Nearly one-half of the world’s land surface consists of river basins shared by more than one country, and more than 30 nations receive more than one-third of their water from outside their borders. Turkey is building new dams and irrigation projects on the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, which will affect water flows into Syria and Iraq—two countries that will experience considerable population growth. Egypt is proceeding with a major diversion of water from the Nile, which flows from Ethiopia and Sudan, both of which will want to draw more water from the Nile for their own development by 2015.  Water-sharing arrangements are likely to become more contentious.” (Global Trends 2015, NIC 2000-02, National Intelligence Council, Washington, DC, December 2000, p. 28)

World Water Availability 2015

National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2015, Dec. 2000, p. 29 citing original source as Stockholm Environmental Institute, 1997: Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World.

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Increasing population is driving a whole series of train wrecks. (4)

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2020 - Global Warming and Water Shortages

2020.  Between 75 million and 250 million in Africa projected to suffer from water shortages.  “Climate change will aggravate the water stress currently faced by some countries, while some countries that currently do not experience water stress will become at risk of water stress (very high confidence). Climate change and variability are likely to impose additional pressures on water availability, water accessibility and water demand in Africa.

Even without climate change, several countries in Africa, particularly in northern Africa, will exceed the limits of their economically usable land-based water resources before 2025. About 25% of Africa’s population (about 200 million people) currently experience high water stress.

between 75 - 250 million and 350 - 600 million people by the 2020s and 2050s, respectively.” (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, Chapter 9-Africa, p. 435)   

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"Populations are outrunning the water supply." (1) 

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2020.  Chronic water shortages in California.  “This is the vision state water planners have for California:  Chronic water shortages by the year 2020. Increasing competition among farmers, cities and the environment for supplies. An area nearly the size of Riverside taken out of irrigated farming.  City dwellers increasingly will be required to conserve. More water will be transferred from farms to cities. More costly reservoirs and canals must be built to carry water and store it against drought needs.  And, nearly 50 million people thirsting for water.” (Douglas E. Beeman, “State faces thirsty future, report says,” The Press-Enterprise, Riverside, California, February 2, 1994, p. A07)

2021 - Climate Change and Water Resources 

2021.  50% chance that Lake Mead will be dry by 2021.  “There is a 50 percent chance Lake Mead, a key source of water for millions of people in the southwestern United States, will be dry by 2021 if climate changes as expected and future water usage is not curtailed, according to a pair of researchers at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego. Without Lake Mead and neighboring Lake Powell, the Colorado River system has no buffer to sustain the population of the Southwest through an unusually dry year, or worse, a sustained drought. In such an event, water deliveries would become highly unstable and variable, said research marine physicist Tim Barnett and climate scientist David Pierce. . . .

Barnett said that the researchers chose to go with conservative estimates of the situation in their analysis, though the water shortage is likely to be more dire in reality [see Underestimates].  The team based its findings on the premise that climate change effects only started in 2007, though most researchers consider human-caused changes in climate to have likely started decades earlier. They also based their river flow on averages over the past 100 years, even though it has dropped in recent decades. Over the past 500 years the average annual flow is even less.” See heat waves global warming.  (“Lake Mead Could Be Dry by 2021,” news release, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, Tuesday, February 12, 2008 reporting findings in Tim P. Barnett and David W. Pierce, "When will Lake Mead go dry?," Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, Journal of Water Resources Research, January 23, 2008)

See Barnett video on “Outlook for Lake Mead” and “How the forecast was created.”

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"We were stunned at the magnitude of the problem [of Lake Mead drying up] and how fast it was coming at us.  Make no mistake, this water problem is not a scientific abstraction, but rather one that will impact each and every one of us that live in the Southwest." (2) 

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2025 - Global Warming and Water Shortages

2025. 5 billion people expected to experience periodic water shortages.  “Greater variability in weather patterns along with higher temperatures may lead to droughts and water shortages.  Today [2007], 1.7 billion people — about one-third of the world's population — live in places that have periodic water shortages. That number is expected to increase to 5 billion by 2025.” (David Brown, Washington Post Staff Writer, “As temperatures rise, health could decline as scientists confront climate change, disease issues studied,” The Washington Post, Washington, DC, Monday, December 17, 2007, p. A07)

2025.  United Nations projects 2.7 billion people will face severe water shortages by 2025 if consumption continues at current rates.  “Recently the United Nations said that 2.7 billion people would face severe water shortages by 2025 if consumption continues at current rates.”  Global warming 2025. (Fen Montaigne, “Water Pressure,” republished from the pages of National Geographic magazine, undated, retrieved Monday, March 1, 2010)

2025.  United Nations projects that by 2025 an estimated 1.8 billion people will live in areas plagued by water scarcity.  “According to the United Nations, water use has grown at more than twice the rate of population increase in the last century. By 2025, an estimated 1.8 billion people will live in areas plagued by water scarcity, with two-thirds of the world's population living in water-stressed regions as a result of use, growth, and climate change.” Climate change 2025. (No author credited, “Freshwater Crisis,” National Geographic, undated, retrieved Monday, March 1, 2010)

2025.  36 countries with 1.4 billion people projected to be either freshwater scarce or cropland scarce.  “Today, experts consider 21 countries, with a combined population of about 600 million, to be either cropland or freshwater scarce. Owing to continuing population growth, 36 countries, with about 1.4 billion people, are projected to fall into this category by 2025.” (National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, November 2008, pp. viii, 51)  

Projected Global Water Scarcity, 2025 

Source:  National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, November 2008, p. 55, water scarcity map adapted from the original map and research published by the International Water Management Institute, IWMI, Annual Report 2007-2008, p. 11)