Climate Change Costs
2011 - Climate Change Costs
2011. NOAA projects cost of 2011 weather/climate disasters to exceed $50 billion. “A typical year in this country features three or four weather disasters whose costs exceed $1 billion each. But this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has tallied a dozen such events, including wildfires in the Southwest, floods in multiple regions of the country and a deadly spring tornado season. And the agency has not finished counting. The final costs are certain to exceed $50 billion [See $52 billion]. ‘I’ve been a meteorologist 30 years and never seen a year that comes close to matching 2011 for the number of astounding, extreme weather events,’ Jeffrey Masters, Ph.D., meteorologist, a co-founder of the popular Web site Weather Underground, said last month. ‘Looking back in the historical record, which goes back to the late 1800s, I can’t find anything that compares, either.’” (Justin Gillis, “Harsh Political Reality Slows Climate Studies Despite Extreme Year,” The New York Times, December 24, 2011)
"In my weather career spanning four decades, I've never seen a year quite like 2011.
Sure, we've had years with extreme flooding, extreme hurricanes, extreme winter snowstorms and even extreme tornado outbreaks, but I can't remember a year like [2011] in which we experienced record-breaking extremes of nearly every conceivable type of weather."
U.S. National Weather Service
Record-Breaking Extreme Weather Events in 2011
Source: U.S. Weather Service, "Extreme Weather 2011," National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, December 6, 2012. Are You Weather-Ready?
2015 - Cost of Global Warming | Climate Change Costs
For Hawaii alone, net benefits of reefs to the economy are estimated at $360 million annually, and the overall asset value is conservatively estimated to be nearly $10 billion.[542] In the Caribbean, coral reefs provide annual net benefits from fisheries, tourism, and shoreline protection services of between $3.1 billion and $4.6 billion. The loss of income by 2015 from degraded reefs is conservatively estimated at several hundred million dollars annually.[532, 543]” (Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, (eds.). U.S. Global Change Research Program, Cambridge University Press, 2009, p. 148)
2020 - Climate Change Costs
2020. IEA projection that global spending on clean energy will need to increase to $23.9 trillion by 2020 in order to avoid missing climate targets. “Global investments in clean energy need to double by 2020 to avoid missing climate change targets, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Monday [June 11, 2012], calling on governments to spend more on technologies such as carbon storage and solar power. Some $23.9 trillion in investments are required by 2020 . . . when governments aim to keep the average rise in global temperatures to below 2 degrees Celsius, the Paris-based organisation said. . . . But cash-strapped governments hit by the recession may take comfort in the IEA's assessment that every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate three dollars in future fuel savings, with total savings offsetting investments by 2025. ‘Let me be straight. Our ongoing failure to realise the full potential of clean energy technology is alarming,’ IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said in a report. ‘Continued heavy reliance on a narrow set of technologies and fossil fuels is a significant threat to energy security, stable economic growth and global welfare, as well as to the environment,’ she said.” (Michel Rose, “IEA calls for doubling of clean energy spending by 2020, Reuters, Paris, France, Monday, June 11, 2012)
2020.
Climate change could cost up to 3% of global GDP by 2020 if effective
measures are not taken.
“‘The business and political leaders should realise that measures to
bring down emission levels would not cost more than 0.2 per cent of the
global GDP, but it could cost up to 3 per cent of world GDP by 2020,
and 5 per cent by 2030, if the temperature goes by 2-4 degree Celsius,’
[R
K Pachauri] the head of the UN's Nobel
Prize-winning scientific panel on
climate change said.” (R K Pachauri,
addressing the annual meeting of the World
Economic Forum in Davos,
Switzerland
quoted in Manoj Kumar, “Climate change may cost 5 pc global GDP by
2030: Pachauri,” PTI - The Press Trust of India Ltd., January 24, 2008)
2020. A single
storm occurring in 2020 could cause damage
losses on the order of $500 billion.
“To better understand the potential for catastrophic damage from future
hurricanes, scientists are looking to the past. And the future looks
very expensive, the scientists said this week at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union.
With wealth and property values increasing, and more people moving to
vulnerable coasts, by the year 2020 a single storm could cause losses
of $500 billion - several times the damage inflicted by Hurricane Katrina.”
(Kenneth
Chang, “In Study, a History Lesson on the Costs of Hurricanes,” The
New York Times, December
11, 2005)
2020. Increases in
ground level ozone caused by higher global warming temperatures could
cost the U.S. approximately $5.4 billion in 2020. “Unchecked global warming could threaten public health and increase health costs by exacerbating ground-level ozone, according to a peer-reviewed report released today by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). The report, “Climate Change and Your Health: Rising Temperatures, Worsening Ozone Pollution,”
found climate change-induced ozone increases could result in 2.8
million additional serious respiratory illnesses, 5,100 additional
infants and seniors hospitalized with serious breathing problems, and
944,000 additional missed school days in the United States in 2020. All
told, these and other health-related impacts could cost approximately
$5.4 billion [2008 dollars]." (“Report Projects Health Impacts and Costs from Worsening Ozone
Pollution in a Warming World,” Union of Concerned Scientists press
release, June 2, 2011 announcing findings in Elizabeth Martin Perera and
Todd Sanford, Climate Change and Your Health: Rising Temperatures, Worsening Ozone, Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, Massachusetts, June 2011)
State Rankings: Health Care Costs with a Ground Level Ozone
Global Warming Climate Penalty of 2 ppb in 2020*
Source: UCS, Climate Change & Your Health: Rising Temperatures, Worsening Ozone, 6/2011
2030 - Global Warming Costs
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The sea ice is decreasing faster
than all the models predicted. . . [M]aybe we
are getting at this tipping point. (1)
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2030. Climate
change could cost up to 5% of global GDP by 2030 if effective steps are
not taken. “World renowned Indian environmentalist R
K Pachauri has warned the international business and political
leaders that climate change could cost up to 5 per cent of global GDP by
2030 if effective steps were not taken in time. ‘The business and
political leaders should realise that measures to bring down emission
levels would not cost more than 0.2 per cent of the global GDP, but it
could cost up to 3 per cent of world GDP by 2020, and 5 per cent by
2030, if the temperature goes by 2-4 degree Celsius,’ the head of the
UN's Nobel Prize-winning scientific panel on climate change said.” (R
K Pachauri, addressing the annual meeting of the World
Economic Forum in Davos,
Switzerland quoted in Manoj Kumar, “Climate change may cost 5 pc
global GDP by 2030: Pachauri,” PTI -
The Press Trust of India Ltd., January 24, 2008)
2030. Estimated
additional global investment of up to $210 billion required in 2030 to
reduce GHG emissions. “It is estimated that global additional
investment and financial flows of USD 200–210 billion will be necessary
in 2030 to return global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to current
levels.” (Report
on the analysis of existing and potential investment and financial
flows relevant to the development of an effective and appropriate
international response to climate change, United
Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change, Dialogue on
long-term cooperative action to address climate change by enhancing
implementation of the Convention, Fourth workshop, Vienna, Austria,
Dialogue working paper 8, August 8, 2007)
2030. Annual
costs of $67 billion projected for 2030 to cover the food supply,
infrastructure and health care relief costs caused by rising sea
levels. “Rising sea levels are likely to prompt mass migrations,
armed conflicts and sanitary crises, requiring urgent planning to
guarantee food and other essentials and at least $67 billion annually in
2030 to help people in developing countries adapt to climate change,
the United Nations said in a report to a conference on climate change in
Vienna. The money is needed to ensure access to food supplies, health
care and infrastructure.” (Bloomberg
News “Conflicts, crises foreseen - UN says rising sea levels from
global warming will stir mass migrations, tensions; urges urgent
planning,” Newsday, Long
Island, New York, August 31, 2007, p. A40)
2030. Global warming
projected to add as much $6.1 billion in repair and replacement costs to
Alaska’s infrastructure by 2030. “Many of Alaska's roads,
runways, railroads and water and sewer systems will wear out more
quickly and cost more to repair or replace because of climate change,
according to a study released yesterday. Higher temperatures, melting
permafrost, a reduction in polar ice and increased flooding are expected
to raise the repair and replacement cost of thousands of infrastructure
projects as much as $6.1 billion for a total of nearly $40 billion -
about a 20 percent increase - from now to 2030, according to the study,
by the Institute for Social and Economic Research at the University of
Alaska Anchorage. . . .
The study is the first of its kind in
Alaska, and its authors emphasize that it does not project costs for
things like moving villages, protecting the Trans-Alaska Pipeline,
fighting wildfires or protecting private property that may be affected.
‘There are a million other issues related to climate change,’ said
Peter Larsen, a natural resource economist at the Institute for Social
and Economic Research and the lead researcher for the report.” (“Study
Sees Climate Change Impact on Alaska,” The
New York Times, June 28,
2007 citing findings in Peter Larsen,
Principal Investigator, O. Scott Goldsmith, ISER-UAA, Orson
Smith, UAA-Engineering, Meghan Wilson, ISER-UAA, Ken Strzepek, U. of
Colorado-Engineering, Paul Chinowsky, U. of Colorado-Engineering, and
Ben Saylor, ISER-UAA, Estimating
Future Costs for Alaska Public Infrastructure At Risk from Climate
Change, Institute of Social and Economic
Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, June 2007, pp. 1, 7, 69,
74, 81)
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We have already reached a tipping point where we will soon see an ice-free Arctic Ocean in the summer.
There's nothing we can do about that. It could be in 2015. It could be in 2025. It almost doesn't matter. It'll happen in this generation.
As a result, the whole weather system could change. (2)
Director, International Polar Year
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* * *
2050 - Cost of Global Warming
2050. California agricultural revenues projected to drop 50% by 2050 due to climate change. “In addition, crop yields are projected to fall across the state; revenues are projected to drop by nearly 50% by 2050, from $2.78 billion in 2006. Compared to agricultural revenues which are calculated to be historically possible for the year 2050, Sacramento will likely see a 15.5% drop, San Joaquin, 10.4%, Tulare, 9.1% and the southern California region a 12.2% drop. Californians in these regions alone stand to lose over $3 billion under a business as usual situation.” (ASP 2011, Pay Now, Pay Later: California, American Security Project, Washington DC, April 13, 2011, p. 3 citing findings in CEC CCCC 2009, Richard Howitt et al, Estimating the Economic Impacts of Agricultural Yield Related Changes for California, California Climate Change Center, California Energy Commission, Sacramento, California, August 2009, vii, 16-17, 26-27)
2050. IEA projection that global spending on clean energy will need to increase to $140 trillion by 2050 in order to avoid missing climate targets. “Global investments in clean energy need to [increase to $140 trillion by 2050] to avoid missing climate change targets, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Monday [June 11, 2012], calling on governments to spend more on technologies such as carbon storage and solar power. Some . . . $140 trillion [in investments are required] by the middle of this century [2050], when governments aim to keep the average rise in global temperatures to below 2 degrees Celsius, the Paris-based organisation said. World nations will have to spend from now to 2050 $36 trillion more than what is currently foreseen, with China having to spend the most. . . . ‘Let me be straight. Our ongoing failure to realise the full potential of clean energy technology is alarming,’ IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said in a report. ‘Continued heavy reliance on a narrow set of technologies and fossil fuels is a significant threat to energy security, stable economic growth and global welfare, as well as to the environment,’ she said.” (Michel Rose, “IEA calls for doubling of clean energy spending by 2020, Reuters, Paris, France, Monday, June 11, 2012 reporting findings in International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 - Executive Summary, OECD/IEA, Paris, France, June 2012)
2050. Climate
disruption projected to place $7.4 trillion of U.S. assets in jeopardy
as a result of 20 inches of sea level rise by 2050. “Rising sea
levels due to global warming in the next few decades could put trillions
of dollars in U.S. assets at risk, according to a report [Major Tipping Points in the Earth’s Climate System and Consequences for the Insurance Sector]
released Tuesday [November 24, 2009]. The joint report, released by
German insurer Allianz S.E. and the World Wildlife Fund, said the
planet’s atmosphere is close to dangerous temperature thresholds, or
“tipping points,” that could cause devastating environmental and
economic consequences. According to the report, a sea level rise of 20
inches by 2050, as predicted by climate scientists, could jeopardize
roughly $7.4 trillion of U.S. assets.” (Colleen McCarthy, “Climate
change could risk trillions in U.S. assets: Report,” BusinessInsurance.com, November 24, 2009)
2050. About $1.4 trillion worth of U.S. coastal-area assets are at risk due to storm surge caused by global warming.
“About $1.4 trillion worth of U.S. coastal-area assets are at risk due
to storm surge from a one-in-100-year event, the report [Major Tipping Points in the Earth’s Climate System and Consequences for the Insurance Sector] released by German insurer Allianz S.E. and the World Wildlife Fund]
said. The report ranked Miami, New York, New Orleans and Boston among
the U.S. cities with the greatest asset exposure by mid-century due to
global warming effects.” (Colleen McCarthy, “Climate change could risk
trillions in U.S. assets: Report,” BusinessInsurance.com, November 24,
2009 citing findings in [Major Tipping Points in the Earth’s Climate System and Consequences for the Insurance Sector]
2050. By 2050 climate instability is projected to cause airlines significant increases in costs due to a doubling of the air space area subject to 10% - 40% increases in air turbulence over the North Atlantic. Scientists studying climate change are predicting that flights across the North Atlantic may experience 10% to 40% greater air travel turbulence in the future. According to research by Dr. Paul Williams of the University of Reading (Reading, Berkshire, England, UK) and Dr. Manoj Joshi of the University of East Anglia, climate change is changing the wind speeds and turbulence in flight paths at 10 kilometers [6.2 miles] up where planes fly. Analyzing supercomputer simulations for flights over the North Atlantic ocean, the researchers found that the amount of air space containing significant turbulence is most likely to double by 2050 — meaning that it will be necessary for airlines to extend ‘Fasten Your Seatbelt Sign’ freedom of movement restrictions on passengers for twice as long as today.
The average strength of turbulence by 2050 is expected to increase by 10% to 40%. The University of Reading research findings estimate that the cost to airlines currently is approximately $100 to $150 million a year. Air turbulence causes physical damage to aircraft, injuries to passengers and crew, re-routing of flights, cost impacts on insurance requirements, delays in reaching flight destinations, increased fuel consumption, increased emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants, higher passenger ticket prices as well as administrative costs incurred for government inquiries. ‘Aviation is partly responsible for changing the climate in the first place,’ observed Dr. Williams. ‘It is ironic that the climate looks set to exact its revenge by creating a more turbulent atmosphere for flying.’” (BBC 2013, Atlantic turbulence 'to become more frequent', British Broadcasting Corporation, London, England, United Kingdom, April 9, 2013 and University of Reading 2013, Press Release, Fasten your seatbelts: climate change doubles turbulence risk to aircraft, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, England, United Kingdom, April 8, 2013 announcing findings in Paul D. Williams and Manoj M. Joshi, “Intensification of winter transatlantic aviation turbulence in response to climate change,” Nature Climate Change, Volume 3, Issue 7, April 2013, pp. 644-648)
2050. As a result of global warming, nearly half of the cities that have hosted the Winter Olympics in the past are projected to no longer have climates suitable to reliably host the Games by the mid-21st century. According to a study published by the University of Waterloo in Ontario, Canada, by the mid-21st century [2050], close to half of the cities that have hosted the games would no longer be able to. It simply would not be cold enough. The study finds that internationally renowned Olympic sites, such as Squaw Valley (USA), Garmisch-Partenkirchen (Germany), Vancouver (Canada) and Sochi (Russia) would no longer have climates suitable to reliably host the Games by the middle of the 21st century. With additional warming projected for later decades of this century, as few as six former host locations would remain climatically suitable. . . . ‘The cultural legacy of the world's celebration of winter sport is increasingly at risk,’ said Professor Daniel Scott, a Canada Research Chair in Global Tourism and lead author of the study. 'Fewer and fewer traditional winter sports regions will be able to host a Olympic Winter Games in a warmer world. Despite technological advances, there are limits to what current weather risk management strategies can cope with.’” (UWaterloo 2014, Press Release, “Climate change threatens Winter Olympics,” Waterloo News, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, January 23, 2014 announcing findings in UWaterloo 2014, Daniel Scott et al, The Future of the Winter Olympics in a Warmer World, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, January 2014
2060 - Commercial Fisheries
2060. End of commercial fishing by 2060. "[B]usiness as usual means that in 50 years there may be no coral reefs, and no commercial fishing, because the fish will simply be gone." (Sylvia Earle, How to protect the oceans,"TEDTalks, Long Beach, California, February 19, 2009, Track 12:11)
2070 - Climate Change Costs
2070. Complete disappearance of snowpacks in the northern Rocky Mountains by 2070. “Fyfe and Flato (1999)
modeled the effects of climate change on snowpacks in the northern
Rocky Mountains during the 21st century. Their simulations showed
shrinking snowpacks during the first two-thirds of the century with
complete disappearance by 2070. They based their simulations in part on
the Canadian Coupled Global Circulation Model which projects higher
temperature increases than the British Hadley Circulation Model (Table
3.8).” (Frederic H. Wagner et al, Preparing for a Changing Climate - The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change,
Rocky Mountain/Great Basin Regional Climate Change Assessment, A Report
of the Rocky Mountain/Great Basin Regional Assessment Team for the U.S.
Global Change Research Program, U.S. Geological Survey, Utah State
University, 2003, p. 139)
2070. Estimated financial impact of a 100-year coastal flood impacting 150 million people projected to be $35 trillion by 2070.
“The impact of climate change and urban development could more than
triple the number of people around the world exposed to coastal
flooding by 2070, with Kolkata being the most vulnerable city followed by Mumbai, a new report [Ranking of the World's Cities Most Exposed to Coastal Flooding Today and in the Future prepared by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD). . . . Ranking port cities with high exposure and vulnerability
to climate extremes, [the report] found that around 150 million people
could be exposed to a one-in-100 year coastal flood event by 2070, up
from 40 million today. The estimated financial impact of such an event
would also rise USD 35 trillion by 2070, up from USD 3 trillion
today.” (Dharam Shourie, “By 2070, Kolkata, Mumbai to be most vulnerable to coastal flood,” New York, PTI - The Press Trust of India Ltd., December 5, 2007)
2070. Projected
worst case global warming temperatures make all of Australia’s ski
resorts unable to operate at a profit by 2070. “Many low altitude ski resorts face economic hardship and even ruin as a result of global warming, a new study [Climate Change and Winter Sports: Environmental and Economical Threats] launched today by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) concludes. Experts at the University of Zurich
say that the levels of snow falling in lower lying mountain areas will
become increasingly unpredictable and unreliable over the coming
decades. . . . The internationally celebrated winter sports town of Kitzbuehl [Austria],
popular among the rich and famous, faces extinction as a top ski
resort. Kitzbuehl is an example of a resort lying at the low altitude
of 760 metres [2,493 feet], a height that will make it acutely
vulnerable to declining and less frequent snow.
The study says
that ski resorts in North America and Australia will be impacted too.
Indeed, none of Australia’s ski resorts will be economically viable by
2070 under a worst case scenario. (Under a worst case scenario, in
which temperatures climb by 3.4 degrees C by 2070, none of Australia’s
existing ski resorts would be operating at a profit.) The findings
have come from Rolf Burki and colleagues at the University of Zurich.
They are being presented today at the V World Conference on Sport and
the Environment taking place in Turin, Italy, which is the host city
for the 2006 Winter Games. . . . The research has used temperature
forecasts produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), a body of some 2,000 scientists.
. . . The IPCC estimates that temperatures will rise by between 1.4 degrees C and 5.8 degrees C by 2100 unless action is taken to significantly reduce emissions from sources such as vehicles, industry, offices and homes. Global warming is expected to be stronger on land areas in the northern hemisphere during the winter months, making mountain-based winter tourism acutely vulnerable.” (“Many Ski Resorts Heading Downhill as a Result of Global Warming,” United Nations Environment Programme, Turin/Nairobi, Africa, December 2, 2003 citing findings in Rolf Bürki, Hans Elsasser, Bruno Abegg, Climate Change and Winter Sports: Environmental and Economical Threats, 5th World Conference on Sport and Environment, Turin, Italy, United Nations Environment Programme, December 2-3, 2003)
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2085 - Global Warming Cost
2085. Meeting increased urban demand for water in California projected to cost the state $316 million to $5 billion per year by 2085. “Water System and Agriculture. Major climate change models predict winter snowpack will decline and snowmelt will occur earlier, which will result in greater runoff. The ability to store water in aquifers for later withdrawal may be compromised. Simultaneously, the demand for water is rising in the region. Ground-water withdrawals increased significantly in recent years in many Western states – 324% in Nevada, 147% in New Mexico, 208% in Utah, and 52% in California. Meeting increased urban demand for water in California is estimated to cost the state $316 million to $5 billion per year by 2085.” (CIER, Regional Highlight: West - The US Economic Impacts of Climate Change and the Costs of Inaction, Center of Integrative Environmental Research at the University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, October 2007)
2100 - Cost of Climate Change
2100. Protecting developed areas of U.S. coastlines from a 1-meter sea level rise projected to cost $73 billion to 111 billion through 2100. “Published estimates of sea level rise due to global warming generally range from 0.5 to 2.0 meters (1.5 to 7 feet) by 2100. Sea level rise could be greater than or less than this range because uncertainties exist regarding the rate of atmospheric warming, glacial processes, oceanic uptake of heat, precipitation in polar areas, and other variables. . . . Given the high property values of developed coastlines in the United States, it is likely that measures would be taken to hold back the sea along most developed shores.
Preliminary estimates suggest that the cumulative capital cost
(including response to current sea level rise) of protecting currently
developed areas would be $73 to $111 billion (in 1988 dollars) through
2100 for a 1-meter global rise (compared with $4 to $6 billion to
protect developed areas from current trends in sea level rise). A
1-meter sea level rise would lead to a cumulative inundation of 7,000
square miles of dryland -- an area the size of Massachusetts (see Table
1, p. xxxvii of report). If the oceans continue to rise at current rates, approximately 3,000 square miles of dryland would be lost.” (U.S. EPA, The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States, EPA-230-05-89-050, Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, December 1989, p. xxxvi)
2100. U.S. projected to lose up to 81% of its premium wine grape growing acreage by 2100 due to climate change. According to a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, severe heat extremes
coinciding with a steep increase in the frequency of extremely hot days
are projected to wipe out 81% of U.S. premium wine grape growing
acreage by the year 2100. The study's computerized climate projections
show the greatest losses occurring in the West Coast and the Southwest. Wine grape production in the Napa and Sonoma valleys and Santa Barbara County of California would essentially be eliminated by the late 21st century, according to computer model scenarios. Only areas in New England, the Pacific Northwest,
the Pacific coast of California and some highly elevated regions in the
West would have the right climate for growing premium wine grapes. By
the year 2100 the only areas in California that will remain suitable
for vineyards will be the Sierra Nevada and the narrow grape growing areas along the California coast, according to the study. (PNAS 2006, M. A. White, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, G. V. Jones, J. S. Pal, and F. Giorgi, “Extreme heat reduces and shifts United States premium wine production in the 21st century,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 25, 2006)
(1) Jay
Zwally, EOS ICESat quoted in “NASA Scientists See Hastened Arctic
Warming,” Voice
of America, Washington,
DC, January 9, 2008
(2) Dr. David Carlson, Director of the International Polar Year (IPY) quoted in Jess Worth, “When the ice melts: what's in store as the world's coldest dwelling place heats up?,” New Internationalist, July 1, 2009
(3) Mark Serreze, senior research scientist, National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, Boulder quoted in Adrianne Appel, “Arctic Ice Isn't Refreezing in the Winter, Satellites Show,” National Geographic News, March 17, 2006
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